2016 Presidential Race

[The Sybian]

I see Obama's presidency as largely an extension of W's. Different puppets, same strings.

Uh-huh.

Two of our employees got bad medical diagnoses over the past couple of years. Before the Affordable Care Act, they would be royally fucked if they left the firm - or their conditions would be used to jack up our rates. Now they are fine. Tell them that Bush and Obama are the same.

It must be nice to not have to care about how people will live their lives while we wait for the Revolution. But not all of us have that luxury.

My healthcare is worse than five years ago. By a decent margin. I'm glad your people got help they needed of course but The ACA isn't all success stories.

Is your medical plan worse because of the ACA? Serious question. So many people complain that their premiums went up because of ACA, then when they look at the increases each year, it is similar. everything I've read about the ACA fallout is so skewed, I have no idea what to believe. I do feel like Republicans hindered the plan by fighting it so much. Putting through a piecemeal version of the plan prevents it from actually working effectively. And why can't I keep my doctor? I constantly hear about how Obama lied when he said I can keep my doctor, what does this even mean, and is it really some catastrophic effect that the ACA monopolizes doctors or prevents them from taking patients not insured on the exchanges?

Healthcare/ACA stuff is one of my hot-button issues. I worked on employer-sponsored health plans from 1998-2005; I work in the healthcare field currently (software). The ACA alone has nothing to do with the increase in rates. The ACA did achieve it's primary goal of getting people coverage. My contention is that rates would be out of control regardless. It's easy to blame because the people that needed coverage are most likely sick people that will in turn inflate the cost.

I can tell you that the market started to change in the 1980's...people started getting used to HMO's, $10 copays, etc. and got spoiled. Starting in the 90's, rates started going up...anywhere from 5-20% per year. Most didn't notice because 1) their employers absorbed the larger percentage of the increase and 2) since the payment is deducted from paychecks it's easy for people not to pay close attention. All the ACA has done is give someone to blame (Obama, et al) for something that was going to happen anyway.

You are correct that the Republicans did dramatically alter Obama's original plan...what was passed was basically a Republican proposal with the approval of the insurance companies. Where the ACA has failed is the area that most required change: cost. One of the provisions of the ACA is that insurance companies can't charge old/sick people more than three times what they charge a young/healthy person. I believe the industry "standard" ratio is 5:1 (not 100% sure if that is still accurate). This is another reason why rates increased dramatically.

Obama "lied" about keeping your doctor because the insurance companies pulled out of markets...if my doctor doesn't accept the insurance that I can get then I do "lose" my doctor. Obama's intent was for no plans to change, but he did not put protections in place to keep the insurance companies in markets and offering the same plans they offered before. It was a mistake to make such a statement.

Sorry if my response is choppy...I'm trying to be brief about something that is a complex problem...and I believe complex problems require complex solutions. One prediction I will make, though: record profits for insurance companies (similar to the banks after 2008) over the next 12-18 months. It's things like this that make people think government is only in the tank for big business.

Thanks. That actually confirms my shaky understanding of the issues.

[degenerasian]

2 and a half hours of Sam Harris and Andrew Sullivan torching both sides of this shit show. So good:

https://www.samharris.org/podcast/item/the-lesser-evil

the following episode too, talks about Islam apologists. The Borders of Tolerance.
https://www.samharris.org/podcast/item/ ... -tolerance

[rass]

Voted. No sticker.

[BSF21]

Voted. No sticker.

Doesn't count.

[tennbengal]

The final thoughts on Florida from Steve Schale:

http://steveschale.com/blog/2016/11/8/w ... erica.html

To: Anyone who has been reading my memos, Putin included.
From: Steve Schale
Re: We survived, and genuine thanks from me.

First, thank you all for following along for the last two weeks. This memo isn't going to be a big data dump. For those, you can go back and read the other 12 versions of this thing.

But I want to start with a couple of numbers. First: 67. 67% was the percentage of the electorate that was white in 2012 -- which by the way was down from 71 in 2012. My foundational assumption was if the electorate was more diverse than 2012, the basic coalition that got President Obama over the line in 2012 would hold. We finish early voting at 65.7 white, 15.3 hispanic, and 13.1 black, with the black number closing in on the 2012 share, and the white number down.

The other thing working into play here is the explosion of turnout in Central Florida and Miami. If you reweighted the 2012 election by the current 2016 share of vote by market, Obama would have beaten Romney by almost twice the 2012 margin, or 1.5%. Under same scenario, if you apply the 2012 margins by county to the 2016 turnout, you end up with a nearly 2 point Clinton win. And none of this factors in the likelihood that race will drive larger margins in some areas -- and smaller Republican ones in others.

So as I think about this race, I try to get my head around what both candidates have going for them.

First the factors that Clinton should feel good about:

The electorate is more diverse than 2012.

The Orlando area (Orange and Osceola) and Miami area (Broward and Dade) are turning out a full 3 points higher as a share of the state (29.3% than projected (26.15%).

While Republicans talked about Trump's ability to turn-out low propensity voters, it is Clinton who has turned out 250,000 more low propensity voters.

NPA voters, making up the largest share they've ever made up in a Florida Presidential election, are 4 points more diverse than the electoate at-large, including a 20% Hispanic share.

Voters who do not fit into one of the three main demographic categories are over 50% low propensity, and combined, are 77% Democratic or NPA.

North Florida, a Trump stronghold, is well under its performance targets, yet #Duuuval County, a GOP stronghold, is actually starting Election Day with a 4K voter Democratic edge. Again, this is why the President came to Duval. For Dems, it was never about winning there, but it is all about stopping the tide.

Factors Trump Should Feel Good About

The Fort Myers media market is over-performing its projected market share by about 1%

Democrats have a smaller raw voter lead going into Election Day. While I think there are structural reasons for this, it is still reality.

There are more Republicans who voted in both 2008 and 2012 left to vote than Democrats (though among just 2012 voters, it's basically a tie).

So what does this mean?

Those are not equal ledgers, and pretty much everything that Hillary Clinton wanted to have happen to position herself to win Florida has happened.

I was asked yesterday about a journalist, "So Schale, what would you be worried about if you were in her campaign?"

Truthfully, not a lot. I am normally superstitious about turnout, so of course you worry about that. But at the same time, I also recognize that for Trump to win, he has to have a ridiculously good day. I suspect that when early voting is counted, that she will have won the early vote by 3-4 points, and if early voting is, let's say 2/3rds of all the votes, it means Trump has to win tomorrow by 6-8 points. I don't think 6-8 points is out there today for him.

If you look at the 3.2 million voters who in 2012 who haven't voted yet, even if they all vote, Miami and Orlando still remain well above both their 2012 share and their projected share, and I-10 (Trump Country) still falls below 2012. Also, Fort Myers comes back to life, finishing where it should, about 6.6% of the electorate.

So in other words, even if all those 2012 voters come out -- voters that lean a little Republican, the electorate is still regionally balanced better for Clinton than Obama, is more diverse than it was for Obama, and has an NPA voter pool that is more diverse than it was for Obama -- or in any state where Trump is winning NPAs. Can Trump win today? Sure. Is it likely? Not really.

In other words, what should I be concerned about?

My good friend Tom Eldon, a longtime FL pollster and fellow oenophile, asked me today "On scale of 1-10, how are you feeling?" If I was a 7 going into 2012 (just ask every reporter who heard me make my pitch for why Obama would win a state no one thought he would), and a 10 in 2008, Tom agreed he was also a 9 (sorry to out you bro).

Really it is this simple: If the Clinton operation hits its marks tonight, she's going to win. It's going to be fairly close, probably in the 1.5-2.5 % margin race. It's hard to nail down exactly because I don't have access to campaign polling (real polling, not public polls).

What To Look for?

Data is going to come in very fast today after 7.

Two scenarios: because so much vote is early & will be reported early, if she's going to win by say 2 or more, I think it will be fairly apparent early. Under a point, it will be late.

Brian Corley in Pasco County usually reports first, VBM-ABS just after 7pm. Pinellas is early as well, and often Orange and Duval come not long after. In those counties, you are looking at 60-75% of the vote coming in at one time. If it is relatively close in Duval and Pasco, and she's leading in Pinellas, and Orange is looking +20, she's probably going to win, but it will take time for race to play out. If Orange is bigger than that or if she starts out tied or with a lead in Duval, it could be faster.

Dade will also come, probably around 7:30 (though being Dade, it might be 7:30 on Thursday). As I told a reporter tonight, I have no clue what to expect. She could be up 25, or she might be up 40, but I suspect it will be big. Former is probably a winning number, latter would be tough to beat. Broward should be about the same time. I suspect a margin north of 200K in the early voting.

Around 8pm, the Panhandle will come in. Romney won the Panama City and Pensacola media markets by about 180K votes. So to be super generous, spot Trump 250K in the Central Time Zone. Unless there is something really odd with the reporting - like Dade or Palm Beach report nothing before 8, if she is up in the 300K margin, it will be hard for Trump to overcome. If it is 400 at that point, you can go home.

But we will know pretty early if it is a short night or a long night. But either way, I think it is a steep challenge for Trump. Since he is a golfer - I'll put it this way: I think he's basically facing a 250 yard carry over water, into a little wind, and that's a shot he probably doesn't have in his bag. God knows I don't have that shot anymore.

Remember, you have to track these on individual county sites until 8. State won't report data until polls close in the CST zone.

What is interesting about Florida is that the margins in counties consistent over time. Outside of a handful of places, we have a decent sense of where it will land. For Trump to win, ths basically has to happen: in 64 counties, he has to get the highest share of any Republican between 2000 and 2012, and he has to keep Clinton's margins in Osceola, Orange, and Dade in the low 20s. He has major problems with the former, namely semi-large places like Sarasota, Polk and Duval, which so no signs of being anywhere near their GOP highs. And with the latter, I don't see how Clinton doesn't stretch Obama's margins in all three of those counties.

So with that, I think she wins. In fact, I am pretty confident. I don't think it's a huge margin, but no win in FL Presidential or Gubernatorial races these days is huge.

Lastly, I hate Election Day as a staffer. Other than trying to get your side on TV or ordering robo calls, there isn't really anything you can do other than trust your operation, and hanging out in the boiler room all day is about the most horrible thing you can do. I spend most of Eday calling fellow hacks of both parties. I've always found it a strangely congenial day between warriors, mainly because we are all doing the same thing, pretty much sitting around.

Today, I take out my Turkish group, and we are going to go see some campaigning, before heading to Tampa to watch the results. I will be providing some thoughts on early returns on Twitter, so pay attention.

Finally, and I mean this with all sincerity, I truly appreciate everyone who took the timto read my musings. When I wrote the first one last Tuesday, I did not plan on doing this daily, but it kind of took off. For me, writing is how I think things out, and so over the last two weeks, I've used these memos, not only to provide some data, but also to work through some of the emerging questions about this race. I also hoped to provide some context to the map, from the eyes of someone who has been trying to read defenses for a solid decade on the field of play.

I'd also like to thank my wife for putting up with me not paying attention to anything other than my spreadsheets for two weeks, my friends who have dealt with me constantly responding to emails and texts, and those who have found my voice mail full. I also want to thank my friend Dan Smith at UF for letting me bounce some theories and data off him, as well as other hack friends, including more than one Republican that I won't name to protect the innocent, for being good checks on what I was writing. I don't have staff, and for 99% of the time, I was doing all my own data work, so forgive me if I didn't respond to you on phone, email or twitter. I've been drinking straight from the proverbial fire hose since about 2pm on day one of in-person voting. As I've told many reporters, my respect for how they manage the flow of information has substantially risen - and thanks to all of you for your feedback over the last two weeks.

I've enjoyed having a life for most this cycle, but it was fun to be in the game for a few weeks. But mostly, having not slept more than 5 hours in 2 weeks, or eaten more than 2-3 proper meals, I'm ready for it to end. It's time to put this shibacle of an election behind & hopefully start reducing the acrimony on both sides of the American debate.

So until 2020 -- if I am crazy enough to do this again, Happy Election Day, that singular day when we get to renew the greatest experiment in self-governing man has ever known.

[Johnnie]

Voted. No sticker.

Doesn't count.

Yup. No Facebook selfie either. Didn't happen.

[rass]

Voted. No sticker.

Doesn't count.

Yup. No Facebook selfie either. Didn't happen.

Illegal in NJ!

[Pruitt]

Good luck guys.

[Joe K]

2 and a half hours of Sam Harris and Andrew Sullivan torching both sides of this shit show. So good:

https://www.samharris.org/podcast/item/the-lesser-evil

the following episode too, talks about Islam apologists. The Borders of Tolerance.
https://www.samharris.org/podcast/item/ ... -tolerance

It tells me everything I need to know about Sam Harris that we are on the eve of an election where one of the two major candidates has proposed a religious test for immigration and establishing a national database to track Muslims -- while the other candidate supported the Iraq War, had a central role in the destruction of Libya, and supports an escalation of Western military involvement in Syria -- and yet Harris is somehow still concerned about "Islam apologists."

[A_B]

Voted. No sticker.

Voted. Two stickers.

(My wife refuses to let people at her office know if she voted or not. Drives them crazy, she says.)

[mister d]

I like her.

[Pruitt]

As a final flourish, Mr. Trump claimed that Tom Brady, the team’s quarterback and a hero across New England, had cast a vote for him.

In a radio interview on Monday, however, Mr. Brady said he had not yet voted.

From the Times

[Joe K]

As a final flourish, Mr. Trump claimed that Tom Brady, the team’s quarterback and a hero across New England, had cast a vote for him.

In a radio interview on Monday, however, Mr. Brady said he had not yet voted.

From the Times

But apparently Belichick has confirmed that he sent the letter Trump read. In case anyone needed more reasons to hate the Pats.

[mister d]

Somehow that surprises me. I always thought maybe I'd like him in a non-sports setting.

[Johnnie]

RIP, Mannequin Challenge.

[Johnnie]

If Belichick wrote that letter, he writes like a fifth grader. He used the word "tremendous" twice and "beautifully" twice. It just doesn't flow well. But whatever. Trump was in New Hampshire and he did what he had to to connect with the locals.

[DaveInSeattle]

Predictions for tonight?

Clinton wins easily....by 6.5%, and with 351 Electoral Votes, winning all of the "swing states" except for Iowa.

My real hope? Rubio goes down in Florida.

The prediction for the Trump campaign?

[A_B]

Not to go all republican on you, but do a lot of people really think asking for an ID is THAT big of a burden, considering the potential ability to abuse the rule? I don't recall ever voting without my ID here in Kentucky and I also don't recall anyone ever throwing a fit about not having one.

I do seem to recall a woman who had a student or work ID, and then a utility bill with her address on it, but I don't think she got any grief over that.

[P.D.X.]

[Ryan]

Just drove by 3 of our polling places. I would estimate the turnout to be everybody percent.

[BSF21]

Not to go all republican on you, but do a lot of people really think asking for an ID is THAT big of a burden, considering the potential ability to abuse the rule? I don't recall ever voting without my ID here in Kentucky and I also don't recall anyone ever throwing a fit about not having one.

I do seem to recall a woman who had a student or work ID, and then a utility bill with her address on it, but I don't think she got any grief over that.

No, I think my main issue is the roadblocks put up in order to get proper ID. I have no problem with being required to produce it to vote.

[Johnnie]

As a final flourish, Mr. Trump claimed that Tom Brady, the team’s quarterback and a hero across New England, had cast a vote for him.

In a radio interview on Monday, however, Mr. Brady said he had not yet voted.

From the Times

But apparently Belichick has confirmed that he sent the letter Trump read. In case anyone needed more reasons to hate the Pats.

My cousin through marriage's dad's truck, for you all. (My Not Uncle in law, in other words.)

My cousin is a lesbian and Hillary supporter, FYSA. She says he gets pulled over in MA all the time do the cops can take pics.

[bapo!]

I'm plugged in, as expected. Not sure how much of the pre-game hype I can take, tho. Reporters and cameras all over the country showing voters standing in line. I watch this every election day, it never changes, yet I can't look away. I need to find something else to do, or else I'm going to drive myself crazy by the time 7:00 rolls around.

Also, Happy Interdependence Day, everybody! (November 8 is a big day in 'Infinite Jest.' Only Brian will get the reference, but whatever. The rest of you can be happy for us.)

[Johnnie]

Not to go all republican on you, but do a lot of people really think asking for an ID is THAT big of a burden, considering the potential ability to abuse the rule? I don't recall ever voting without my ID here in Kentucky and I also don't recall anyone ever throwing a fit about not having one.

I do seem to recall a woman who had a student or work ID, and then a utility bill with her address on it, but I don't think she got any grief over that.

No, I think my main issue is the roadblocks put up in order to get proper ID. I have no problem with being required to produce it to vote.

It really fucking isn't. This is a legitimate issue. If I have to show my ID for beer despite looking over 21 only because establishments don't want to get busted for accidentally serving a 20 or less year old, then something as 'sacred' as voting should be met with the same regard.

Now making it more difficult to vote than to get a cup of coffee? Fuck that noise. That's disgusting injustice.

[degenerasian]

so...

If Clinton wins FL, it's over. If she wins NC, expect a landslide. If Trump wins NH, resume your work on the bunker or hope that Canada hasn't built a wall.

[degenerasian]

2 and a half hours of Sam Harris and Andrew Sullivan torching both sides of this shit show. So good:

https://www.samharris.org/podcast/item/the-lesser-evil

the following episode too, talks about Islam apologists. The Borders of Tolerance.
https://www.samharris.org/podcast/item/ ... -tolerance

It tells me everything I need to know about Sam Harris that we are on the eve of an election where one of the two major candidates has proposed a religious test for immigration and establishing a national database to track Muslims -- while the other candidate supported the Iraq War, had a central role in the destruction of Libya, and supports an escalation of Western military involvement in Syria -- and yet Harris is somehow still concerned about "Islam apologists."

Perhaps. or sometimes is difficult to get guests for the right time? Harris is really left-leaning and has stated his disdain for Trump and the Republican party. But is afraid the left has done too far.

[Steve of phpBB]

Not to go all republican on you, but do a lot of people really think asking for an ID is THAT big of a burden, considering the potential ability to abuse the rule? I don't recall ever voting without my ID here in Kentucky and I also don't recall anyone ever throwing a fit about not having one.

I do seem to recall a woman who had a student or work ID, and then a utility bill with her address on it, but I don't think she got any grief over that.

No, I think my main issue is the roadblocks put up in order to get proper ID. I have no problem with being required to produce it to vote.

It really fucking isn't. This is a legitimate issue. If I have to show my ID for beer despite looking over 21 only because establishments don't want to get busted for accidentally serving a 20 or less year old, then something as 'sacred' as voting should be met with the same regard.

Now making it more difficult to vote than to get a cup of coffee? Fuck that noise. That's disgusting injustice.

Except that because there is, statistically speaking, *no* voter fraud of the type an ID requirement presents, any ID requirement is by definition unduly burdensome.

I imagine that all of us on the Swamp drive. So we have licenses, and an ID requirement is no big deal. But there actually are people out there who do not drive and do not have licenses, and so they need to go through a major hassle to get an alternative ID card. (And of course, student IDs don't count for these things, but gun permits do.) There are enough stories of people being forced to go through an inordinate hassle that the ID requirements need to go.

Johnnie, remember that you do not have a constitutional right to buy alcohol. But every citizen has a constitutional right to vote, one which many people took beatings for and even died for.

[A_B]

Yeah, I get that it's not super-easy to get an ID without already having one, which for most of us goes back to our parents vouching that we are who they said when we got our first license. But Isn't it also a hassle worth undertaking? Some hassles are not worth it. Some have benefits that make it worth it. Having a state-issued picture ID allows you to do many many things that are difficult otherwise, so one bigger hassle to avoid many many smaller ones seems worth it.

[DaveInSeattle]

Not to go all republican on you, but do a lot of people really think asking for an ID is THAT big of a burden, considering the potential ability to abuse the rule? I don't recall ever voting without my ID here in Kentucky and I also don't recall anyone ever throwing a fit about not having one.

I do seem to recall a woman who had a student or work ID, and then a utility bill with her address on it, but I don't think she got any grief over that.

Showing an ID to vote may not be that much of a burden, but when coupled with making getting an ID more difficult? Absolutely its suppressing votes.

Look at Alabama, for example. In 2014, they passed a voter ID law. And then, in what was surely a coincidence, in 2015 they closed a boatload of DMV offices, making it more difficult to get the necessary ID.

Oh, and in even more of a coincidence, the DMV offices closed were all in counties where African-Americans made up more than 75% of the voting age population.

[vandwagon]

Not to go all republican on you, but do a lot of people really think asking for an ID is THAT big of a burden, considering the potential ability to abuse the rule? I don't recall ever voting without my ID here in Kentucky and I also don't recall anyone ever throwing a fit about not having one.

I do seem to recall a woman who had a student or work ID, and then a utility bill with her address on it, but I don't think she got any grief over that.

No, I think my main issue is the roadblocks put up in order to get proper ID. I have no problem with being required to produce it to vote.

The main reason it shouldn't be necessary is that voter fraud is essentially non-existent. It's a solution looking for a problem. I gave my name, address and birthdate today and that was more than sufficient.

The secondary reason is as mentioned above, roadblocks. For some people who don't have the right ID, it will cost them money and time to gather the necessary documents to prove what has never been an issue before. I've seen stories of poor and elderly people having to take days off of work to get IDs. That shouldn't be necessary. Especially when it's not solving anything.

[Steve of phpBB]

Not to go all republican on you, but do a lot of people really think asking for an ID is THAT big of a burden, considering the potential ability to abuse the rule? I don't recall ever voting without my ID here in Kentucky and I also don't recall anyone ever throwing a fit about not having one.

I do seem to recall a woman who had a student or work ID, and then a utility bill with her address on it, but I don't think she got any grief over that.

Showing an ID to vote may not be that much of a burden, but when coupled with making getting an ID more difficult? Absolutely its suppressing votes.

Look at Alabama, for example. In 2014, they passed a voter ID law. And then, in what was surely a coincidence, in 2015 they closed a boatload of DMV offices, making it more difficult to get the necessary ID.

Oh, and in even more of a coincidence, the DMV offices closed were all in counties where African-Americans made up more than 75% of the voting age population.

And let's face it, does anyone think that the ID requirement would be equally enforced at the polling place? If I show up saying I left my license at home, something tells me I will get a lot more leeway than if one of those dark-skinned people says the same thing.

[A_B]

Here's where I guess I will leave it, because I don't disagree that it should be easier to get an ID (when I was getting my Daughter's permit, there was an older couple that was in teh line behind us who had moved from West Virginia - the clerk told them that they had to have their BIRTH CERTIFICATE in addition to the photo WV license they already had provided, social security cards, and utility bills in their names showing their new address) while also thinking it's OK to have to show ID to vote. Election day is the second Tuesday of November. Every year. If you didn't take the time to go get it before now, then that's on you.

[DaveInSeattle]

Here's where I guess I will leave it, because I don't disagree that it should be easier to get an ID (when I was getting my Daughter's permit, there was an older couple that was in teh line behind us who had moved from West Virginia - the clerk told them that they had to have their BIRTH CERTIFICATE in addition to the photo WV license they already had provided, social security cards, and utility bills in their names showing their new address) while also thinking it's OK to have to show ID to vote. Election day is the second Tuesday of November. Every year. If you didn't take the time to go get it before now, then that's on you.

I think its insane that people still have to go and stand in line to vote. Here in the happy liberal bubble of Washington, everything is Vote-By-Mail. Couldn't be more easy. Every state should do it.

[Pruitt]

The voter fraud thing is such a smokescreen How many tens of thousands of fake voters would be needed to significantly sway results of a race at a higher level than county clerk?

[mister d]

Just a shade under 2 hours on line start to finish here.

[Johnnie]

so...

If Clinton wins FL, it's over. If she wins NC, expect a landslide. If Trump wins NH, resume your work on the bunker or hope that Canada hasn't built a wall.

And if all three are true? Flip Nevada as a 'firewall' state for New Hampshire and it's moot anyway.

[Johnnie]

Here's where I guess I will leave it, because I don't disagree that it should be easier to get an ID (when I was getting my Daughter's permit, there was an older couple that was in teh line behind us who had moved from West Virginia - the clerk told them that they had to have their BIRTH CERTIFICATE in addition to the photo WV license they already had provided, social security cards, and utility bills in their names showing their new address) while also thinking it's OK to have to show ID to vote. Election day is the second Tuesday of November. Every year. If you didn't take the time to go get it before now, then that's on you.

Gunna be pedantic for a moment: It's the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Presidential election day 2020 is November 3rd.

[A_B]

Here's where I guess I will leave it, because I don't disagree that it should be easier to get an ID (when I was getting my Daughter's permit, there was an older couple that was in teh line behind us who had moved from West Virginia - the clerk told them that they had to have their BIRTH CERTIFICATE in addition to the photo WV license they already had provided, social security cards, and utility bills in their names showing their new address) while also thinking it's OK to have to show ID to vote. Election day is the second Tuesday of November. Every year. If you didn't take the time to go get it before now, then that's on you.

Gunna be pedantic for a moment: It's the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Presidential election day 2020 is November 3rd.

Ok thanks. I mean fuck you but thanks.

[The Sybian]

Just a shade under 2 hours on line start to finish here.

Holy fuck! This is the first time I have ever seen a line at my polling place. 2 of the 11 districts in town voted in the same room on two separate machines. I had 2 people in line in front of me, the other district had 10 or so. The poll volunteers said it was crazy busy earlier (I went at 8:20). If nothing else, Trump motivated voter turnout, whether it is for him or against him. Either that, or people are fired up over the County Freeholder race.

NJ people, does anyone truly understand the gasoline tax ballot question? We just had an enormous gas tax increase, from 4 cents a gallon to 27 cents a gallon overnight. The question is about limiting the use of this tax entirely to the Transportation Fund, or allowing a portion of the tax for discretionary use. I put in some time researching this question, and I have no fucking idea what the real world implications are. I ended up not even voting for the question. The vote no people say it is a scam, and deceptively written to make it sound like it will limit the Legislature's discretion in spending funds, while actually giving them authority to borrow money and jack up debt long term, while being a giveaway to Wall Street backers. The Yes people say it ensures desperately needed infrastructure repairs, and the No people are scammers for some reason I don't even remember.

Ballot questions seem like a great idea in practice, allowing people to decide the laws, but in reality, I guarantee an overwhelming majority of people have no idea what the enactment of the propositions actually do. So many of these things are worded to sound like they lower taxes or fix a problem, when they really do the opposite. Is it Florida that has the question about a Solar Energy policy that sounds like it will help the solar industry, but it was actually written and proposed by the fossil fuel industry to restrict solar? Listening to the radio in California, there were nonstop commercials for all of the propositions on the ballot. Some of them were esoteric questions that there is no way people comprehend what the proposition will actually do. Without reading the actual question, and only hearing one side saying how catastrophic the prop would be if enacted, I had no fucking clue what was being proposed.

[mister d]

I voted yes for the same "infrastructure badly needs it" reason.