I have to think that full tribe names stand a better chance of surviving, but at the same time, there's probably no downside to rebranding just to avoid the small downside of keeping the name. Sell all new merch!brian wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 9:32 amNot sure I'm going to outlive my school's nickname myself.wlu_lax6 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 8:38 am So if my school changes its name, does my swamp handle have to change? Have to believe they keep W&L for branding..but maybe not...maybe I can just keep wlu and assume it is a typo.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/educatio ... ngton-lee/
Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
Moderators: Shirley, Sabo, brian, rass, DaveInSeattle
- A_B
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Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
Hold on, I'm trying to see if Jack London ever gets this fire built or not.
- Steve of phpBB
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Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
Does CMU have a deal with any of the Chippewa/Ojibwa tribes or bands for the use of the name? That's what the U of Utah did with the in-state Ute Indian Tribe, and it seems to be working out well. The U provides scholarships to Tribal students, publicizes and promotes the Tribe at sporting events, etc. This works out for the Tribe because being so small, having the university promote them gives them more publicity than they otherwise would get.A_B wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 9:37 amI have to think that full tribe names stand a better chance of surviving, but at the same time, there's probably no downside to rebranding just to avoid the small downside of keeping the name. Sell all new merch!brian wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 9:32 amNot sure I'm going to outlive my school's nickname myself.wlu_lax6 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 8:38 am So if my school changes its name, does my swamp handle have to change? Have to believe they keep W&L for branding..but maybe not...maybe I can just keep wlu and assume it is a typo.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/educatio ... ngton-lee/
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
Yeah, they've had a deal like that since the late 80s, so there's a really good relationship between the school and the tribe. All use of Native iconography was banned in like 1986.Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:18 amDoes CMU have a deal with any of the Chippewa/Ojibwa tribes or bands for the use of the name? That's what the U of Utah did with the in-state Ute Indian Tribe, and it seems to be working out well. The U provides scholarships to Tribal students, publicizes and promotes the Tribe at sporting events, etc. This works out for the Tribe because being so small, having the university promote them gives them more publicity than they otherwise would get.A_B wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 9:37 amI have to think that full tribe names stand a better chance of surviving, but at the same time, there's probably no downside to rebranding just to avoid the small downside of keeping the name. Sell all new merch!brian wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 9:32 amNot sure I'm going to outlive my school's nickname myself.wlu_lax6 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 08, 2020 8:38 am So if my school changes its name, does my swamp handle have to change? Have to believe they keep W&L for branding..but maybe not...maybe I can just keep wlu and assume it is a typo.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/educatio ... ngton-lee/
So for that reason, there's no immediate danger as far as a name change, but it's not impossible that down the road there might not be the same desire to have the tribal name associated with the sports teams.
Bandwagon fan of the 2023 STANLEY CUP CHAMPIONS!
- Pruitt
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Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
Whenever I'm stuck behind someone buying a lot of lottery tickets, or checking a wad of them, I am struck by the fact that they usually look desperate, really old, or seem to have some sort of mental issue.
Such a sleazy business.
Such a sleazy business.
"beautiful, with an exotic-yet-familiar facial structure and an arresting gaze."
Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
I've been playing the same three sets of numbers for 12 years now. I know it's a waste of $6 a week, but whatever.
well this is gonna be someone's new signature - bronto
- Steve of phpBB
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Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
Was that you behind me last week?
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
I usually enjoy that the lottery is illegal in Nevada because it makes convenience store visits much quicker. Can't tell you how many times I've gotten stuck in line in Michigan behind some nimrod who needs one of all 20 varieties of scratchers and then will just stand there at the counter and scratch them off.
Bandwagon fan of the 2023 STANLEY CUP CHAMPIONS!
Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
One great thing about Wawa is they have machines to dispense scratchies, which allows people who understand probability to stay away from the riff-raff. I can't speak for other convenience stores.
My avatar corresponds on my place in the Swamp posting list with the all-time Home Run list. Number 45 is Paul Konerko with 439.
Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
Man, I remember my parents always buying scratch tickets when I was a kid and winning like once in a great while. I think the most ever won was like $100 or something. They just seemed like such dead end things.
Kinda feeds into the overall nature/nurture thing where I'm lucky that I escaped that trait where addiction/addictive personality takes control.
It's also amazing that I can be financially secure just by having budgeted properly this far into my life when I grew up not having as much as my friends and stayed poor until I got a job. (And I've even had hobbies that required a pretty significant financial commitment too.)
Thanks, Mom & Dad.
Kinda feeds into the overall nature/nurture thing where I'm lucky that I escaped that trait where addiction/addictive personality takes control.
It's also amazing that I can be financially secure just by having budgeted properly this far into my life when I grew up not having as much as my friends and stayed poor until I got a job. (And I've even had hobbies that required a pretty significant financial commitment too.)
Thanks, Mom & Dad.
mister d wrote:Couldn't have pegged me better.
EnochRoot wrote:I mean, whatever. Johnnie's all hot cuz I ride him.
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Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
Not talking about someone who spends $6 a week.
I've seen people spending close to $100 at a time.
"beautiful, with an exotic-yet-familiar facial structure and an arresting gaze."
Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
When I worked at a convenience store in college we had our regulars. Knew exactly which ticket they wanted. Some would even go so far as to ask what number it was on the roll. They seemed to think closer to the beginning of the roll was the prime spot. There was another guy that would come in once a week and buy one of each ticket. Go to the eating area and scratch them off. Cash out what he won and be on his way. We were his Tuesday stop. He had other locations around town for every other day of the week.
To quote both Bruce Prichard and Tony Schiavone, "Fuck Duff Meltzer."
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Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
I worked at the Service Desk at Wegmans and sold lotto tickets. Lots of degenerate regulars who would come in with a long list of numbers to play regularly. Never saw any of them ever hit, even with the 3 digit lotto, whatever that was called in NY, Pick 3 maybe. Sad, because they didn't seem like they could afford it.
My wife has gotten the kids scratch off tickets a few times. Liquor store next to the frozen yogurt place, as something to do. I actually root for my kids to lose, so they learn not to buy them, but my daughter usually wins. I think 3 out of 4 times. $10 on a $1 is the most she won, and had to split it with my son.
My wife has gotten the kids scratch off tickets a few times. Liquor store next to the frozen yogurt place, as something to do. I actually root for my kids to lose, so they learn not to buy them, but my daughter usually wins. I think 3 out of 4 times. $10 on a $1 is the most she won, and had to split it with my son.
An honest to God cult of personality - formed around a failed steak salesman.
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Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
The lottery is a tax on the poor and uneducated.The Sybian wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:01 am I worked at the Service Desk at Wegmans and sold lotto tickets. Lots of degenerate regulars who would come in with a long list of numbers to play regularly. Never saw any of them ever hit, even with the 3 digit lotto, whatever that was called in NY, Pick 3 maybe. Sad, because they didn't seem like they could afford it.
My wife has gotten the kids scratch off tickets a few times. Liquor store next to the frozen yogurt place, as something to do. I actually root for my kids to lose, so they learn not to buy them, but my daughter usually wins. I think 3 out of 4 times. $10 on a $1 is the most she won, and had to split it with my son.
...The craps table is where the money is
Dances with Wolves (1) - BSF
"This place was rockin'," said BSF21.
"There is nothing ever uncommon about BSF21."
"This place was rockin'," said BSF21.
"There is nothing ever uncommon about BSF21."
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Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
Which fittingly supports the public schools (supposedly).BSF21 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:08 amThe lottery is a tax on the poor and uneducated.The Sybian wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:01 am I worked at the Service Desk at Wegmans and sold lotto tickets. Lots of degenerate regulars who would come in with a long list of numbers to play regularly. Never saw any of them ever hit, even with the 3 digit lotto, whatever that was called in NY, Pick 3 maybe. Sad, because they didn't seem like they could afford it.
My wife has gotten the kids scratch off tickets a few times. Liquor store next to the frozen yogurt place, as something to do. I actually root for my kids to lose, so they learn not to buy them, but my daughter usually wins. I think 3 out of 4 times. $10 on a $1 is the most she won, and had to split it with my son.
An honest to God cult of personality - formed around a failed steak salesman.
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Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
It really can be sad. I'm sure this is an isolated example but I've overheard people explaining the lottery to others and honestly believing that buying multiple tickets increases your odds substantially. As in if you have a one in a million chance to win, but you buy 2 tickets, now you have a 1 in 500,000 chance and so on.The Sybian wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:16 amWhich fittingly supports the public schools (supposedly).BSF21 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:08 amThe lottery is a tax on the poor and uneducated.The Sybian wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:01 am I worked at the Service Desk at Wegmans and sold lotto tickets. Lots of degenerate regulars who would come in with a long list of numbers to play regularly. Never saw any of them ever hit, even with the 3 digit lotto, whatever that was called in NY, Pick 3 maybe. Sad, because they didn't seem like they could afford it.
My wife has gotten the kids scratch off tickets a few times. Liquor store next to the frozen yogurt place, as something to do. I actually root for my kids to lose, so they learn not to buy them, but my daughter usually wins. I think 3 out of 4 times. $10 on a $1 is the most she won, and had to split it with my son.
It hurts to watch people's dreams hinge on that.
Dances with Wolves (1) - BSF
"This place was rockin'," said BSF21.
"There is nothing ever uncommon about BSF21."
"This place was rockin'," said BSF21.
"There is nothing ever uncommon about BSF21."
- Steve of phpBB
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Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
Wait ... what?
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
Has anyone ever been fooled by the fake ones? I once thought my girlfriend won 10k on a scratch-off.
well this is gonna be someone's new signature - bronto
Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
I'm curious to hear your argument against this.BSF21 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:22 am It really can be sad. I'm sure this is an isolated example but I've overheard people explaining the lottery to others and honestly believing that buying multiple tickets increases your odds substantially. As in if you have a one in a million chance to win, but you buy 2 tickets, now you have a 1 in 500,000 chance and so on.
It hurts to watch people's dreams hinge on that.
Totally Kafkaesque
Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
I'm confused. What arguments against? Against it being sad that people don't understand probability?Shirley wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:35 amI'm curious to hear your argument against this.BSF21 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:22 am It really can be sad. I'm sure this is an isolated example but I've overheard people explaining the lottery to others and honestly believing that buying multiple tickets increases your odds substantially. As in if you have a one in a million chance to win, but you buy 2 tickets, now you have a 1 in 500,000 chance and so on.
It hurts to watch people's dreams hinge on that.
Dances with Wolves (1) - BSF
"This place was rockin'," said BSF21.
"There is nothing ever uncommon about BSF21."
"This place was rockin'," said BSF21.
"There is nothing ever uncommon about BSF21."
Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
I wanna hear your explanation about the probability. If the odds of hitting the winning number are 1 in a million per ticket and I buy two tickets, it sounds like you're saying I haven't doubled my odds. Or are you saying the odds are still so long that it's irrelevant?BSF21 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:37 amI'm confused. What arguments against? Against it being sad that people don't understand probability?Shirley wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:35 amI'm curious to hear your argument against this.BSF21 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:22 am It really can be sad. I'm sure this is an isolated example but I've overheard people explaining the lottery to others and honestly believing that buying multiple tickets increases your odds substantially. As in if you have a one in a million chance to win, but you buy 2 tickets, now you have a 1 in 500,000 chance and so on.
It hurts to watch people's dreams hinge on that.
Totally Kafkaesque
Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
You now have 2 individual 1 in 1,000,000 chances. Not a 1 in 500,000 chance. And so on. You have doubled your chances, not your odds. There are people who think it works like that. If I just buy a lot of tickets, I have a much better chance to win. No, you have many more of the same infinitely small chance of winning.Shirley wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:45 amI wanna hear your explanation about the probability. If the odds of hitting the winning number are 1 in a million per ticket and I buy two tickets, it sounds like you're saying I haven't doubled my odds. Or are you saying the odds are still so long that it's irrelevant?BSF21 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:37 amI'm confused. What arguments against? Against it being sad that people don't understand probability?Shirley wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:35 amI'm curious to hear your argument against this.BSF21 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:22 am It really can be sad. I'm sure this is an isolated example but I've overheard people explaining the lottery to others and honestly believing that buying multiple tickets increases your odds substantially. As in if you have a one in a million chance to win, but you buy 2 tickets, now you have a 1 in 500,000 chance and so on.
It hurts to watch people's dreams hinge on that.
Dances with Wolves (1) - BSF
"This place was rockin'," said BSF21.
"There is nothing ever uncommon about BSF21."
"This place was rockin'," said BSF21.
"There is nothing ever uncommon about BSF21."
Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
Probability eludes me about 103% of the time, but...
If there's a lottery with 300,000 possible combinations, and you buy enough tickets to cover every single one, yes you have 300,000 different 1-in-300,000 chances. But you also have a 100% chance of winning. Pretty sure it works like that no matter how far up the scale you want to go.
Does it help money-wise? PROBABLY not.
If there's a lottery with 300,000 possible combinations, and you buy enough tickets to cover every single one, yes you have 300,000 different 1-in-300,000 chances. But you also have a 100% chance of winning. Pretty sure it works like that no matter how far up the scale you want to go.
Does it help money-wise? PROBABLY not.
he’s a fixbking cyborg or some shit. The
holy fuckbAllZ, what a ducking nightmare. Holy shot. Just, fuck. The
holy fuckbAllZ, what a ducking nightmare. Holy shot. Just, fuck. The
Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
It does, but the problem it's not an attainable goal.Ryan wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:56 am Probability eludes me about 103% of the time, but...
If there's a lottery with 300,000 possible combinations, and you buy enough tickets to cover every single one, yes you have 300,000 different 1-in-300,000 chances. But you also have a 100% chance of winning. Pretty sure it works like that no matter how far up the scale you want to go.
Does it help money-wise? PROBABLY not.
Example being that pulling 5 numbers out of a possible vat of 50 leads to over 2 million possible combinations. Even if you were able to do it, there's no reward.
Dances with Wolves (1) - BSF
"This place was rockin'," said BSF21.
"There is nothing ever uncommon about BSF21."
"This place was rockin'," said BSF21.
"There is nothing ever uncommon about BSF21."
- Pruitt
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Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
Thing with lottery odds is that anyone who gambles should know the ridiculousness of even the supposedly lowered odds.
If you saw a horse listed at 100/1 you wouldn't drop a dime on it. But tell someone that they have a 500,000/1 shot at winning $50, and they'll take it.
"Well, somebody's going to win. Might as well be me" is an attitude that keeps this voluntary tax system going.
If you saw a horse listed at 100/1 you wouldn't drop a dime on it. But tell someone that they have a 500,000/1 shot at winning $50, and they'll take it.
"Well, somebody's going to win. Might as well be me" is an attitude that keeps this voluntary tax system going.
"beautiful, with an exotic-yet-familiar facial structure and an arresting gaze."
Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
Also, depending on the draw, there are 240 million permutations of that 5/50 setBSF21 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 11:01 amIt does, but the problem it's not an attainable goal.Ryan wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:56 am Probability eludes me about 103% of the time, but...
If there's a lottery with 300,000 possible combinations, and you buy enough tickets to cover every single one, yes you have 300,000 different 1-in-300,000 chances. But you also have a 100% chance of winning. Pretty sure it works like that no matter how far up the scale you want to go.
Does it help money-wise? PROBABLY not.
Example being that pulling 5 numbers out of a possible vat of 50 leads to over 2 million possible combinations. Even if you were able to do it, there's no reward.
Dances with Wolves (1) - BSF
"This place was rockin'," said BSF21.
"There is nothing ever uncommon about BSF21."
"This place was rockin'," said BSF21.
"There is nothing ever uncommon about BSF21."
Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
Fun read on the guy who won the lottery 14 times buy buying nearly every possible combo
https://thehustle.co/the-man-who-won-th ... y-14-times
also prof at W&L sued VA for selling scratchers after the big prize was won. Not sure what actually happened with this case.
https://roanoke.com/archive/lawsuit-aga ... db342.html
https://thehustle.co/the-man-who-won-th ... y-14-times
also prof at W&L sued VA for selling scratchers after the big prize was won. Not sure what actually happened with this case.
https://roanoke.com/archive/lawsuit-aga ... db342.html
Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
I don't understand how you're defining these words, so let's just go to math.BSF21 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:48 amYou now have 2 individual 1 in 1,000,000 chances. Not a 1 in 500,000 chance. And so on. You have doubled your chances, not your odds. There are people who think it works like that. If I just buy a lot of tickets, I have a much better chance to win. No, you have many more of the same infinitely small chance of winning.
If we're talking scratch-off tickets, then the events are independent of each other. If you scratch two tickets, you can win on one, win on the other, win on both, or win on neither. Let's make the odds of winning 1/100 per ticket to make the math easier to follow.
If you play once, your odds of winning are 1/100 or .01. You can also think of it in terms of the odds of losing which are 99/100 or .99.
If you play twice, you win in 3 of the 4 outcomes I listed above. The easy way to calculate your odds of winning at least once is to calculate 1 - (.99 x .99). That comes out to .0199. Not exactly 2%, or twice the odds of playing once, but it's pretty damn close.
If you play 100 times, you still aren't guaranteed to win. The odds are 1 - .99^100, which is about 63%.
Now, if we're talking about a lottery where you get to choose the numbers, now you have dependent events and the math is much simpler. If the odds are 1/100 (meaning you can choose to play one of 100 numbers), if you buy 3 different numbers, your odds of winning are 3/100.
I think now that what you were trying to say is that the expected value per ticket doesn't change no matter how many you buy. And that's true. It then only becomes profitable to play the lottery when the payout actually exceeds the odds. Then, if you can manage to buy all the numbers, you are guaranteed to make a profit. This has happened multiple times with well-funded and well-organized teams (although I don't think they managed to actually buy all the combinations).
Totally Kafkaesque
Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
I am by no means a math guy so let me state that up front but if you have a 100 scratchers and you play 1 and it’s a loss, you now have reduced the pool to 99. You then play a second. You have not doubled your odds to win, you have doubled your chances to win at the current or slightly improved odds. But since the plays are independent events, you do not have a 2% chance to win in whole.Shirley wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 11:33 amI don't understand how you're defining these words, so let's just go to math.BSF21 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:48 amYou now have 2 individual 1 in 1,000,000 chances. Not a 1 in 500,000 chance. And so on. You have doubled your chances, not your odds. There are people who think it works like that. If I just buy a lot of tickets, I have a much better chance to win. No, you have many more of the same infinitely small chance of winning.
If we're talking scratch-off tickets, then the events are independent of each other. If you scratch two tickets, you can win on one, win on the other, win on both, or win on neither. Let's make the odds of winning 1/100 per ticket to make the math easier to follow.
If you play once, your odds of winning are 1/00 or .01. You can also think of it in terms of the odds of losing which are 99/100 or .99.
If you play twice, you win in 3 of the 4 outcomes I listed above. The easy way to calculate your odds of winning at least once is to calculate 1 - (.99 x .99). That comes out to .0199. Not exactly 2%, or twice the odds of playing once, but it's pretty damn close.
If you play 100 times, you still aren't guaranteed to win. The odds are 1 - .99^100, which is about 63%.
Now, if we're talking about a lottery where you get to choose the numbers, now you have dependent events and the math is much simpler. If the odds are 1/100 (meaning you can choose to play one of 100 numbers), if you buy 3 different numbers, your odds of winning are 3/100.
I think now that what you were trying to say is that the expected value per ticket doesn't change no matter how many you buy. And that's true. It then only becomes profitable to play the lottery when the payout actually exceeds the odds. Then, if you can manage to buy all the numbers, you are guaranteed to make a profit. This has happened multiple times with well-funded and well-organized teams (although I don't think they managed to actually buy all the combinations).
The focus is what comes after the second pull and how people perceive that “chance to win” and as I said above, those that think under the guise that if you buy a second ticket you have doubled your odds of winning. If you buy 4, you have quadrupled your odds. Now it’s 1/125,000! That’s not how it works. You now have 4 individual chances at the 1/1,000,000 mark or very very close there to if you stipulated that the combos couldn’t repeat.
Am I way off here or are we saying the same thing.
I got a C+ in AP stats in 18 years ago so I’d like to remind you exactly the kind of mathematical juggernaut you’re dealing with here.
Dances with Wolves (1) - BSF
"This place was rockin'," said BSF21.
"There is nothing ever uncommon about BSF21."
"This place was rockin'," said BSF21.
"There is nothing ever uncommon about BSF21."
Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
I think what BSF is saying is that they're flipping the logic in their head. Adding a second ticket at 1 in 1,000,000 does double your odds of winning, but it doesn't halve your odds of losing. You go from 999,999 losses to 999,998, not 499,999.
Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
But then we're gonna have a fantasy draft BASED ON THE LOTTERY TICKETS YOU DRAW so you can stil...
he’s a fixbking cyborg or some shit. The
holy fuckbAllZ, what a ducking nightmare. Holy shot. Just, fuck. The
holy fuckbAllZ, what a ducking nightmare. Holy shot. Just, fuck. The
Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
You're not way off, but you're off. You have nearly doubled your odds if you buy a second ticket. And nearly quadrupled your odds if you buy 3 more. But to increase those odds, you had to buy more tickets, so that's a guaranteed loss of that money you already spent. In the end, it's not really a winning play whether you buy 1 or 2 or 100. So, the more you buy, the more you lose overall, even if you have increased your very small odds of winning big.BSF21 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 11:45 amI am by no means a math guy so let me state that up front but if you have a 100 scratchers and you play 1 and it’s a loss, you now have reduced the pool to 99. You then play a second. You have not doubled your odds to win, you have doubled your chances to win at the current or slightly improved odds. But since the plays are independent events, you do not have a 2% chance to win in whole.Shirley wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 11:33 amI don't understand how you're defining these words, so let's just go to math.BSF21 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:48 amYou now have 2 individual 1 in 1,000,000 chances. Not a 1 in 500,000 chance. And so on. You have doubled your chances, not your odds. There are people who think it works like that. If I just buy a lot of tickets, I have a much better chance to win. No, you have many more of the same infinitely small chance of winning.
If we're talking scratch-off tickets, then the events are independent of each other. If you scratch two tickets, you can win on one, win on the other, win on both, or win on neither. Let's make the odds of winning 1/100 per ticket to make the math easier to follow.
If you play once, your odds of winning are 1/00 or .01. You can also think of it in terms of the odds of losing which are 99/100 or .99.
If you play twice, you win in 3 of the 4 outcomes I listed above. The easy way to calculate your odds of winning at least once is to calculate 1 - (.99 x .99). That comes out to .0199. Not exactly 2%, or twice the odds of playing once, but it's pretty damn close.
If you play 100 times, you still aren't guaranteed to win. The odds are 1 - .99^100, which is about 63%.
Now, if we're talking about a lottery where you get to choose the numbers, now you have dependent events and the math is much simpler. If the odds are 1/100 (meaning you can choose to play one of 100 numbers), if you buy 3 different numbers, your odds of winning are 3/100.
I think now that what you were trying to say is that the expected value per ticket doesn't change no matter how many you buy. And that's true. It then only becomes profitable to play the lottery when the payout actually exceeds the odds. Then, if you can manage to buy all the numbers, you are guaranteed to make a profit. This has happened multiple times with well-funded and well-organized teams (although I don't think they managed to actually buy all the combinations).
The focus is what comes after the second pull and how people perceive that “chance to win” and as I said above, those that think under the guise that if you buy a second ticket you have doubled your odds of winning. If you buy 4, you have quadrupled your odds. Now it’s 1/125,000! That’s not how it works. You now have 4 individual chances at the 1/1,000,000 mark or very very close there to if you stipulated that the combos couldn’t repeat.
Am I way off here or are we saying the same thing.
I got a C+ in AP stats in 18 years ago so I’d like to remind you exactly the kind of mathematical juggernaut you’re dealing with here.
Again, this is different with buying numbers for a Lotto. But it's still a losing play until the jackpot gets so big it exceeds the remote odds of winning. But even then, you're not really ahead either, because it just means there's a greater chance of having to split the winning with someone else.
Totally Kafkaesque
Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
And with those odds, it also supposes there even is a winning ticket in the first place.
mister d wrote:Couldn't have pegged me better.
EnochRoot wrote:I mean, whatever. Johnnie's all hot cuz I ride him.
Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
Most states have to reveal the exact odds of winning, so that's known information.
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Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
For those that don't suck at rolling dice, of course. (I hate playing Catan because I'm awful at dice rolling.)
I once set a point on every "come" line and then rolled a 7. Stopped playing craps after that.
mister d wrote:Couldn't have pegged me better.
EnochRoot wrote:I mean, whatever. Johnnie's all hot cuz I ride him.
Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
So it isn't a false hope? There legally is a 1/X chance that there is a winning possibility?
mister d wrote:Couldn't have pegged me better.
EnochRoot wrote:I mean, whatever. Johnnie's all hot cuz I ride him.
Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
Isn't it just 1 divided by the number of possible combinations? Doesn't speak to jackpot odds since you can split with multiple people of the same numbers.
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Yeah, I don't know laws is every state of course, but in Michigan at least with the scratchers they have to reveal the exact odds of winning some prize, sometimes they detail it by every prize amount possible, so if there's a million dollar winner the odds are 1 in 5,000,000 (or whatever) and odds of a $2 winner are 1 in 8 (or whatever), etc.
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Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
Which is why you play the 5 draw Keno.brian wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 1:06 pmYeah, I don't know laws is every state of course, but in Michigan at least with the scratchers they have to reveal the exact odds of winning some prize, sometimes they detail it by every prize amount possible, so if there's a million dollar winner the odds are 1 in 5,000,000 (or whatever) and odds of a $2 winner are 1 in 8 (or whatever), etc.
Dances with Wolves (1) - BSF
"This place was rockin'," said BSF21.
"There is nothing ever uncommon about BSF21."
"This place was rockin'," said BSF21.
"There is nothing ever uncommon about BSF21."
Re: Random Thoughts About Thoughts Random
Here's an example.
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