mister d wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:34 pm
So what they're saying is the polls have missed the last two elections by pretty massive margins?
No, Clinton was +3.5 in 2016
She was +2.1 (48.2 - 46.1). There was a lot of late movement, and the national polling average ended up being within one point of that.
Obama ended up winning by 3.9. I have my questions about that 538 polling average stat, because back then the Republicans were all talking about "unskewing the polls" - because the polls were showing Obama winning. I recall following fairly closely, and I don't remember Obama trailing in the last week.
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
There was a polling error chart floating on Twitter a few days ago that compared the polling errors in individual states in 2012 and 2016 that would answer what you are getting at.
Basically, Biden’s current polling leads in states puts him above 270 even if the exact same polling error from 2016 applied now (ignoring that pollsters changed their weighting this go around to account for that issue).
tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:08 am
The fear porn about voting and counting issues in PA this AM on Twitter is so pervasive it feels coordinated. Except it is coming from well meaning people amplifying the same damn article. Just, enough.
It's also beside the point, because if the race really comes down to counting votes in PA, everyone will have lost. Even if Biden prevails in that count, his win will be somewhat hollow if he doesn't flip at least one of the sun belt states. I think the Ds are basically dead meat if they don't prove that the sun belt suburban rebellion is a real thing.
So my polling question above is do they ever ask 4 way decided polling so we can see Biden/Trump and mail/in-person splits. Knowing ahead of time where Biden should be sitting once PA polls close seems really, really important. Like should he already have cleared or do we know he might have 2% of his total vote outstanding?
Johnnie wrote: ↑Sat Sep 10, 2022 8:13 pmOh shit, you just reminded me about toilet paper.
mister d wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:16 am
So my polling question above is do they ever ask 4 way decided polling so we can see Biden/Trump and mail/in-person splits. Knowing ahead of time where Biden should be sitting once PA polls close seems really, really important. Like should he already have cleared or do we know he might have 2% of his total vote outstanding?
Everything I have seen is that if the vote is reported with mail-ins not being counted until after the day of votes Biden will be SIGNIFICANTLY behind - giving the Sup Ct/ WH the argument that Trump is the real winner and that it is being stolen.
tennbengal wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:25 amEverything I have seen is that if the vote is reported with mail-ins not being counted until after the day of votes Biden will be SIGNIFICANTLY behind - giving the Sup Ct/ WH the argument that Trump is the real winner and that it is being stolen.
Which means we have to trust that non-Fox sources will be on top of this from the absolute start versus spinning the "wow, this is unexpected" narrative.
Johnnie wrote: ↑Sat Sep 10, 2022 8:13 pmOh shit, you just reminded me about toilet paper.
tennbengal wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:25 amEverything I have seen is that if the vote is reported with mail-ins not being counted until after the day of votes Biden will be SIGNIFICANTLY behind - giving the Sup Ct/ WH the argument that Trump is the real winner and that it is being stolen.
Which means we have to trust that non-Fox sources will be on top of this from the absolute start versus spinning the "wow, this is unexpected" narrative.
Yes. I've seen multiple tweets from experts trying to make that plain to the other major networks. Whether they will communicate that clearly is TBD.
The REAL fucked up thing is that this would all be avoided if the votes were allowed to be counted as they're received, which is what most mail-in states do. But the GOP legislatures in WI, MI and PA insisted votes can't be counted until Election Day precisely to try and gin up the narrative that Trump won and only "late" votes are the result of Biden pulling ahead later. The only bright side is the usually the Secretaries of State that manage elections aren't as ridiculous as Kathleen Harris was in FL in 2000 (i.e. they really take the job of making sure all valid votes are counted seriously)
PA is strange because it's up to each county to decide when to start counting. Philly (the city itself is its own county) is starting its mail-in count at 7 am on Election Day, so a larger share than normal there can auger good results.
Finding recent early voting numbers in Philly is a little difficult, as there's obviously some other shit going on right now.
My avatar corresponds on my place in the Swamp posting list with the all-time Home Run list. Number 45 is Paul Konerko with 439.
L-Jam3 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:22 pm
PA is strange because it's up to each county to decide when to start counting. Philly (the city itself is its own county) is starting its mail-in count at 7 am on Election Day, so a larger share than normal there can auger good results.
Finding recent early voting numbers in Philly is a little difficult, as there's obviously some other shit going on right now.
Yeah Kentucky can start at 8 AM Tuesday. And given that it's literally a scanning machine I would think that most of those are going to be input before the 6 PM close of polls.
You know what you need? A lyrical sucker punch to the face.
It's Trump talking out of his ass. Why would the court save him of all people. No matter what side you are on the institutions are still there, these people are still judges who uphold the law. We can see this from recent court decisions on PA and NC on voting regulations.
Kung Fu movies are like porn. There's 1 on 1, then 2 on 1, then a group scene..
My wife and have decided to stay off social media and avoid the news starting at about 6pm on Tuesday. Watching is not going to change anything (we both voted this morning) and I can just doom scroll through Twitter on Wednesday morning.
One of my friends suggested another Zoom happy hour since our group hasn't done one in about 3-4 months. Another guy suggested 9:30pm Tuesday and I immediately responded that I was a hard pass for that night.
“All I'm sayin' is, he comes near me, I'll put him in the wall.”
I voted yesterday and there was no line, but Nevada Day (today, the last date of early voting) is historically a really busy day. The dean of Nevada politics, Jon Ralston, estimates that 70 percent of Nevadans will have already voted by Election Day (the Dems are running ahead in Clark County by about 70,000 ballots, which would indicate about a 4 or 5 point win if something crazy doesn't happen.
Its not Biden. It was a campaign bus that some campaign workers were on that was harrassed by American Taliban. Biden is in Michigan with Obama at the present.
It’s unfortunate that those caravans (particularly elections of this magnitude) do not have a significant security detail buttressing the buses. That would put a stop to that nonsense real quick.
It’s unfortunate that those caravans (particularly elections of this magnitude) do not have a significant security detail buttressing the buses. That would put a stop to that nonsense real quick.
eta: I’m surprised this hadn’t happened already.
The cops are on the side of the Nazis. (Or Taliban in this metaphor).
