Election Day 2022

[A_B]

May as well have its own thread.

Got a voter guide and I don't typically do it, but I'm considering a straight party vote for the first time. We don't have much that will matter (Booker is great but likely loses by 10 points) but I learned my lesson.

Is it going to be bad? Projections are still pretty much split.

[mister d]

Assuming they haven't cleaned up the non-answer / false-answer bias, I expect it'll be bad and people will wonder why the polling was again so wrong.

[degenerasian]

Yeah, polling seems bad because of undecideds who tend to vote last minute against the ruling party when times are bad. And you can't poll for that.
I know the country is polarized but still, more undecideds will vote Republican this time just because they're mad at the economy. Shades of 1994 and 2010.

[Nonlinear FC]

It's actually more basic than all of that. Polling relies primarily on people answering a phone call from a number that tells you what it is (some type of robo-call looking thing).

Who answers those calls anymore?

And states with a lot of whack-a-doodle QAnon voters? You think those folks are picking up the phone from a pollster? Fat fucking chance.

Democrats are nerds and they are more prone to sit on the ph with a pollster.

Science. Look it up.

[Nonlinear FC]

Yeah, polling seems bad because of undecideds who tend to vote last minute against the ruling party when times are bad. And you can't poll for that.
I know the country is polarized but still, more undecideds will vote Republican this time just because they're mad at the economy. Shades of 1994 and 2010.

There's more going on than the economy. I've said it a thousand times... Young voters, and especially young women voters are registering in record numbers.

I'm not saying blue wave, because the money being poured into this cycle is fucking bonkers, but I think it's going to be a lot closer than folks on this board think.

[mister d]

Yeah, I took an admittedly quick and very non-scientific look at 2020. If you take the 270toWin final average polls by state and their Biden vs Trump margin, most got the winner right but 46 of 51 had the number too favorable to Biden. So like they had Biden by 7% and it came in Biden by 3%. Obviously you're not going to hit on all of them, but when the miss is on one side 90% of the time, that's not margin of error, its an inherent issue with political polling data. When there are this many senate and house races inside their own margin of error, once you mentally account for the Dem skew, its seems concerning.



(Like "Fetterman by 4% +/- 2.7%" probably shouldn't be taken as "he can win by 7% or he can squeak it out by just over 1%". A loss is still very in play there.)

[Steve of phpBB]

Yeah, polling seems bad because of undecideds who tend to vote last minute against the ruling party when times are bad. And you can't poll for that.
I know the country is polarized but still, more undecideds will vote Republican this time just because they're mad at the economy. Shades of 1994 and 2010.

There's more going on than the economy. I've said it a thousand times... Young voters, and especially young women voters are registering in record numbers.

I'm not saying blue wave, because the money being poured into this cycle is fucking bonkers, but I think it's going to be a lot closer than folks on this board think.

I really hope you're right - your optimistic take from a while back has been the only thing giving me hope.

My fear is that the people who registered because they were angry about Dobbs aren't angry anymore. The initial anger has faded, and the vast majority of people who weren't already engaged have realized that Dobbs hasn't actually made their lives any different. So the only people left who are still angry over Dobbs are the people who were already engaged and already supported the Dems.

Ballot response in the more Democratic areas of Utah appears to be down. And the Rs seem to be out-ballot-returning the Dems in Clark County, Nevada, which is like the only Dem stronghold of the state (I think - maybe Brian or someone has more insight into this). So I just don't know.

I'm heading into the desert for the next four days to try to keep myself from doomscrolling. I just wish I could find a place with no cell coverage and stay there for two weeks.

[Johnnie]

I voted by mail like a week and a half ago and it's already been counted according to the website that tracks those sort of things.

Very easy. And unlike dropboxes in Phoenix, no one was at the Post Office with guns watching me either. So that was a bonus.

And I voted straight ticket Democrat. I even went the extra petty step of figuring out which judges were appointed by which governor and voted 'no' on the ones appointed by a Republican. (All but 1.)

Also glad to vote yes on Prop 130 which consolidates property tax stuff and adds in several more demographics for exemptions. (Like veterans )

[degenerasian]

Yeah, polling seems bad because of undecideds who tend to vote last minute against the ruling party when times are bad. And you can't poll for that.
I know the country is polarized but still, more undecideds will vote Republican this time just because they're mad at the economy. Shades of 1994 and 2010.

There's more going on than the economy. I've said it a thousand times... Young voters, and especially young women voters are registering in record numbers.

I'm not saying blue wave, because the money being poured into this cycle is fucking bonkers, but I think it's going to be a lot closer than folks on this board think.

I don't know, I find a lot of these numbers conflicting. For example, "Do you think democracy is in danger?" Something like 40% will answer yes. But when asked to rank this issue, it's often 7th or 8th on the list. The economy, health (COVID), climate, crime, racism even terrorism are higher importance to voters than abortion and democracy.

[The Sybian]

Yeah, polling seems bad because of undecideds who tend to vote last minute against the ruling party when times are bad. And you can't poll for that.
I know the country is polarized but still, more undecideds will vote Republican this time just because they're mad at the economy. Shades of 1994 and 2010.

There's more going on than the economy. I've said it a thousand times... Young voters, and especially young women voters are registering in record numbers.

I'm not saying blue wave, because the money being poured into this cycle is fucking bonkers, but I think it's going to be a lot closer than folks on this board think.

I don't know, I find a lot of these numbers conflicting. For example, "Do you think democracy is in danger?" Something like 40% will answer yes. But when asked to rank this issue, it's often 7th or 8th on the list. The economy, health (COVID), climate, crime, racism even terrorism are higher importance to voters than abortion and democracy.

A lot of it is in how the questions are asked. If asked to rank, most people are going to give higher priority to the things that directly affect them personally, and inflation and the economy are easily measured and obvious in daily life. Everyone is going to say keeping a democracy is important, but it's hard to measure an abstract theory compared to seeing your salary stay the same while the price of gas, food and every item is going up rapidly. If I was ranking, I'd list maintaining our democracy as the #1 priority, but I follow this shit a lot closer than most people and majored in political science, so I know we can't just continue to vote Republicans into office and assume we will maintain our democracy.

[HaulCitgo]

Yeah, polling seems bad because of undecideds who tend to vote last minute against the ruling party when times are bad. And you can't poll for that.
I know the country is polarized but still, more undecideds will vote Republican this time just because they're mad at the economy. Shades of 1994 and 2010.

There's more going on than the economy. I've said it a thousand times... Young voters, and especially young women voters are registering in record numbers.

I'm not saying blue wave, because the money being poured into this cycle is fucking bonkers, but I think it's going to be a lot closer than folks on this board think.

I don't know, I find a lot of these numbers conflicting. For example, "Do you think democracy is in danger?" Something like 40% will answer yes. But when asked to rank this issue, it's often 7th or 8th on the list. The economy, health (COVID), climate, crime, racism even terrorism are higher importance to voters than abortion and democracy.

A lot of it is in how the questions are asked. If asked to rank, most people are going to give higher priority to the things that directly affect them personally, and inflation and the economy are easily measured and obvious in daily life. Everyone is going to say keeping a democracy is important, but it's hard to measure an abstract theory compared to seeing your salary stay the same while the price of gas, food and every item is going up rapidly. If I was ranking, I'd list maintaining our democracy as the #1 priority, but I follow this shit a lot closer than most people and majored in political science, so I know we can't just continue to vote Republicans into office and assume we will maintain our democracy.

Kinda hyperbolic. We cant vote Trumpers... and assume. Even then, there was basically no chance that guy would have stayed in office and overthrown the democracy. To the point of the thread, the RNC took most of the space in my office building and im in a 90% black area and theyve been reasonably successful. Very concerned that Warnock will lose. Wouldnt have said that a month ago but tide has changed as everyone has grown weary of the domestic violence allegations (on both sides). Warnock really lost some steam in those attacks when his ex-wife (bad enough... I really question divorced pastors) was shown in television clips alleging something similar. Not the same at all but enough to destroy the credibility of Hershel's ex-wifes more legitimate allegations. Looking like a red splash if not a wave.

[degenerasian]

But aren't Democrats funding Trumpers to win primaries hoping they then beat the crazies in the election? I think that's backfiring.

[The Sybian]

Yeah, polling seems bad because of undecideds who tend to vote last minute against the ruling party when times are bad. And you can't poll for that.
I know the country is polarized but still, more undecideds will vote Republican this time just because they're mad at the economy. Shades of 1994 and 2010.

There's more going on than the economy. I've said it a thousand times... Young voters, and especially young women voters are registering in record numbers.

I'm not saying blue wave, because the money being poured into this cycle is fucking bonkers, but I think it's going to be a lot closer than folks on this board think.

I don't know, I find a lot of these numbers conflicting. For example, "Do you think democracy is in danger?" Something like 40% will answer yes. But when asked to rank this issue, it's often 7th or 8th on the list. The economy, health (COVID), climate, crime, racism even terrorism are higher importance to voters than abortion and democracy.

A lot of it is in how the questions are asked. If asked to rank, most people are going to give higher priority to the things that directly affect them personally, and inflation and the economy are easily measured and obvious in daily life. Everyone is going to say keeping a democracy is important, but it's hard to measure an abstract theory compared to seeing your salary stay the same while the price of gas, food and every item is going up rapidly. If I was ranking, I'd list maintaining our democracy as the #1 priority, but I follow this shit a lot closer than most people and majored in political science, so I know we can't just continue to vote Republicans into office and assume we will maintain our democracy.

Kinda hyperbolic. We cant vote Trumpers... and assume. Even then, there was basically no chance that guy would have stayed in office and overthrown the democracy. To the point of the thread, the RNC took most of the space in my office building and im in a 90% black area and theyve been reasonably successful. Very concerned that Warnock will lose. Wouldnt have said that a month ago but tide has changed as everyone has grown weary of the domestic violence allegations (on both sides). Warnock really lost some steam in those attacks when his ex-wife (bad enough... I really question divorced pastors) was shown in television clips alleging something similar. Not the same at all but enough to destroy the credibility of Hershel's ex-wifes more legitimate allegations. Looking like a red splash if not a wave.

I don't think I'm being hyperbolic at all. Vote in a couple "normal" Republicans into the House and Kevin McCarthy is the Speaker and sets the agenda. I don't think McConnell as Senate Majority Leader ends much better. Vote in a bunch of election deniers who have a legit shot at winning State and local positions overseeing the elections, and yeah, we can't assume Democracy remains intact. I'm not saying it's definitely imploding and we turn into a dictatorship, I'm just saying we can't continue to assume it can't happen here. We have numerous candidates centering their campaign on ensuring Democrats can't win future elections, and many of them are winning.

[HaulCitgo]

Thats not true. And its not unique to Republicans. Everything has become so blue and red. Neither one is trying to destroy the country but both have somehow convinced their constituents that the other is trying to do so.

[L-Jam3]

This is another example of how bad the Dems are at messaging. Instead of talking about a nebulous concept like "democracy", an area the vast majority don't know the ins and out of, make it easy. Simply state that the Republicans are trying to take the vote away from Black Americans, and if you put them in power, then your Black friends are going to suffer. I know I'm banging the same drum about putting them on the defense for a change, but that's fighting fire with fire. Just attack every Republican for being the same party as the ones in Georgia who took away Souls to the Polls. I can even picture the ad of a Black church choir singing, and then cut the Republican politicians talking about how they're saying about voter fraud, then superimpose that all the voter fraud happened in Republican strongholds. Maybe video of that old Black woman getting arrested at her house. Finish them with a voiceover of photos of the 16th Street Church and saying this is what the Republicans want, do you?

And this stuff is so in the open. Why aren't PACs showing ads of the January 6th dipshits attacking police with sticks, and then testimony of them admitting they took a dump on the Senate floor? This can't be that hard.

[A_B]

So Lexington stuck with paper ballots that you scan in. Which, fine. I liked our old machines, which made it impossible to actually not get your vote counted because you picked it on a screen instead of having to make sure the bubble is filled in all the way. BUT, the biggest issue is they put you in these little booths to fill it out, then you have to go stand in line with your ballot and wait to get to scan. And it is VERY easy to see what people voted for. So if you're the type of person that would get mad about another person's vote, you're probably looking and it isn't a good system, IMO.

I didn't feel threatened because I'm a grown man, but I took my youngest for his first voting and he was a bit nervous about the whole process and then had to stand there with people being able to look if they wanted. I kinda held mine folded over and against my shirt so he did as well, but it wasn't the ideal first experience.

Oh well, we'll see what happens.

[brian]

As confident as I felt on Election Day 2016, I feel equally unconfident about tonight. So we'll see I guess.

[GoodKarma]

The R candidates in AZ, MI and NV for Secretary of State are absolutely terrifying for the future of this country. If any of them win 2024 will be a disaster.

[DaveInSeattle]

[mister d]

Doesn't seem very difficult to predict what's going to happen and who will and won't get blamed for it.

[L-Jam3]

Doesn't seem very difficult to predict what's going to happen and who will and won't get blamed for it.

GOP, Blacks, white suburban women.

[rass]

Second election in a row the poll workers had to break the seal on the bag for provisional voting just for little old dumbass me. Last time I botched up my mail-in ballot and this time I just forgot (and I guess assumed the mail-in ballot I got was a sample).

[mister d]

"Oh look, The Voting Dipshit is here. Wonder how he fucked up this time."

[Giff]

It's going to be so bad. I'm going to feel even worse than I felt after 2016.

[rass]

They might hate watching me walk in, but the way my ass looks in these joggers I know damn well they love watching me leave.

[The Sybian]

Thats not true. And its not unique to Republicans. Everything has become so blue and red. Neither one is trying to destroy the country but both have somehow convinced their constituents that the other is trying to do so.

So the anti-Democracy GOP don't think they are destroying the country, they think they are saving the country by making sure Liberals and Dems can't fairly win elections, because they think Dems will destroy the country. While I disagree with most Conservative positions, I don't think Conservative policies will destroy democracy, but they will enhance the rich at the cost of hurting the bottom 99% of Americans, not to mention the risk of overturning all of the Supreme Court cases giving us the right to abortions, gay marriage, interracial marriage, contraception...

What I'm talking about is the numerous Republicans running on campaigns of disregarding election results and installing their candidates. Candidates running for positions that oversee the election process in several states saying "vote for me and I'll make sure Dems can't win an election ever again." Not to mention all the GOP candidates flat out saying that if they lose, they will refuse to accept the results because it's a rigged system and Dems can only cheat by winning despite no evidence at all in an election that hasn't even happened yet. So yes, there are GOP candidates running on campaigns to destroy the democratic process. And my fear is if the GOP wins a large majority in the House and the Senate, the mainstream Republicans will continue to remain epic pussies and refuse to stand up to the nutjob wing and allow the GOP to actually rig the system, They already practice voter suppression and gerrymandering to stay in power, and with a supermajority, I have no faith at all that shitbags like McConnell and Kevin McCarthy won't allow the lunatics to run Democracy off the cliff. Those fuckers only care about maintaining power, and they don't hold popular positions, so they sold their souls to the Christian Right in the 80s, and now are selling it further to the wingnuts, White Nationalists, conspiracy theorists and whoever else they can dredge up.

[The Sybian]

They might hate watching me walk in, but the way my ass looks in these joggers I know damn well they love watching me leave.

Never have I seen so much misplaced confidence.


(I'm sure your ass looks great in those pants)

[Steve of phpBB]

Thats not true. And its not unique to Republicans. Everything has become so blue and red. Neither one is trying to destroy the country but both have somehow convinced their constituents that the other is trying to do so.

So the anti-Democracy GOP don't think they are destroying the country, they think they are saving the country by making sure Liberals and Dems can't fairly win elections, because they think Dems will destroy the country. While I disagree with most Conservative positions, I don't think Conservative policies will destroy democracy, but they will enhance the rich at the cost of hurting the bottom 99% of Americans, not to mention the risk of overturning all of the Supreme Court cases giving us the right to abortions, gay marriage, interracial marriage, contraception...

What I'm talking about is the numerous Republicans running on campaigns of disregarding election results and installing their candidates. Candidates running for positions that oversee the election process in several states saying "vote for me and I'll make sure Dems can't win an election ever again." Not to mention all the GOP candidates flat out saying that if they lose, they will refuse to accept the results because it's a rigged system and Dems can only cheat by winning despite no evidence at all in an election that hasn't even happened yet. So yes, there are GOP candidates running on campaigns to destroy the democratic process. And my fear is if the GOP wins a large majority in the House and the Senate, the mainstream Republicans will continue to remain epic pussies and refuse to stand up to the nutjob wing and allow the GOP to actually rig the system, They already practice voter suppression and gerrymandering to stay in power, and with a supermajority, I have no faith at all that shitbags like McConnell and Kevin McCarthy won't allow the lunatics to run Democracy off the cliff. Those fuckers only care about maintaining power, and they don't hold popular positions, so they sold their souls to the Christian Right in the 80s, and now are selling it further to the wingnuts, White Nationalists, conspiracy theorists and whoever else they can dredge up.

This. As far as I know, only one side has been making a concerted effort for the past two years to suggest that Biden didn't legitimately win the 2020 election.

Democracy requires at least two fundamental principles: (i) When a party loses an election, it needs to accept and acknowledge the loss, and (ii) When a party wins an election, it needs to give the opposing party a fair chance to win the next time. And this has to come from the party elites and establishments, because ordinary people don't care enough about democracy in the abstract.

The Rs have completely abandoned the first principle, in a way that I don't think the Dems have ever done - even after Bush v Gore.

The Rs have also abandoned the second principle. See, e.g., Wisconsin. The Dems haven't been exactly clean on this historically, but never as bad as what the Rs are doing now, and the Dems are pushing laws that would prevent either party from doing that going forward.

[Nonlinear FC]

Nothing drives me more insane than whataboutism when it comes to the two parties.

The Republican Party is lead by a man that is actively looking into how to lock up journalists if he gets back in the White House.

I love that I get more actual, personal shit about The Pretenders than folks do on here with this bullshit "take."

[A_B]

Nothing drives me more insane than whataboutism when it comes to the two parties.

The Republican Party is lead by a man that is actively looking into how to lock up journalists if he gets back in the White House.

I love that I get more actual, personal shit about The Pretenders than folks do on here with this bullshit "take."

Sorry, I just don't like how Chrissie Hynde so obviously wanted to steal Phoebe's "Smelly Cat" and that was a bridge too far. Little known fact but that's the exact reason Pheobe Bridgers, who started her career busking, chose that as a stage name as the episode came out shortly after Bridgers was born. Only luddites don't know this.

[DSafetyGuy]

My favorite name on the ballot today? Alissa Italiano (city council).

[Pruitt3]

A sincere good luck to you guys. This must suck.

[EnochRoot]

Nothing drives me more insane than whataboutism when it comes to the two parties.

The Republican Party is lead by a man that is actively looking into how to lock up journalists if he gets back in the White House.

I love that I get more actual, personal shit about The Pretenders than folks do on here with this bullshit "take."

Because your take on Chrissy Hynde was surprising. After January 6th there is simply no longer a legitimate defense for voting Republican until that party gets its shit straightened out. It's the bullshit, insincere take that causes my eyes to roll out of my head. It's just not worth my time.

[tennbengal]

before the likely bad news, let's at least take some joy in some good

[Johnnie]

Florida is firmly red. Rubio and DeathSantis are getting re-elected.

[Jerloma]

Florida is firmly red. Rubio and DeathSantis are getting re-elected.

As is Gaetz of course.

What a shithole state.

[Steve of phpBB]

Florida is firmly red. Rubio and DeathSantis are getting re-elected.

As is Gaetz of course.

What a shithole state.

Gaetz’s district is really hard core red. No surprise there.

[Johnnie]

I'm watching the Secular Talk/Breaking Points live stream on YouTube and Saager said that $72 million (!!!!!) was spent on Val Demings's campaign only to be shellacked at the very minute polls closed.

Nuts.

[tennbengal]

[Jerloma]

I'm watching the Secular Talk/Breaking Points live stream on YouTube and Saager said that $72 million (!!!!!) was spent on Val Demings's campaign only to be shellacked at the very minute polls closed.

Nuts.

Cenk and Anna are interviewing Gaetz right now and it's incredible.