L-Jam3 wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 9:56 am
So I have this theory in my head that I want to put down as a first draft. I'm putting the bulk of it in a spoiler tag because it's scatological in nature, and I wanted to give you a waring in case you were eating.
Okay, so let's say we're a park one Saturday with around a hundred other people. All the sudden, a guy gets up and drops trou, and then takes a shit right into his hands. He then starts juggling the shit around. People around him are obviously mortified. And while everyone gets out of the way, lest they get sprayed with shit, there is a sizable amount of people who are still watching out of morbid curiosity. Just out of probability, someone is going to watch it and say, "yeah, that's absolutely disgusting... but he's a pretty good juggler."
If a few days later you ran into a friend and then they asked you "hey, you were at the park this past Saturday. How was it?" What are you going to recall? The couple sharing a Triscuit picnic? The kids tossing a frisbee around? The pups just frolicking around off-leash? No. You're going to remember the guy who took a shit in his hands and started juggling it. It's something our brains naturally latch on. We as a species easier recall things that are scary or disgusting as a natural prevention.
That's social media. It's been engineered to keep pushing that button in our head that would scare or disgust us to keep us on the site. The mewling harpies that are bragging how Trump is way ahead in the polls and the "Demonrats" are ruining America, that's what sticks in our heads. These people are the shit-jugglers. And social media is shit-jugglers right in our face to the point that we think they're widespread, and the people complimenting his juggling ability are widespread, when in reality they're just a tiny but easily noticeable percentage.
When you guys are seeing these "polls" that Trump is surging ahead, that's a manufactured spectacle to get you to stay on a site. Our brains as a species are latching onto bad news, and then expecting it to be much more widespread than it is. In reality, we're the people that are disgusted, and we're a much larger group, but our brains' tendencies to assume bad news is taking over.
Think back to 2020. Was anti-masking really as widespread as we thought? Yeah, in some parts. But we are a country of 330 million people. Law of averages says there were going to be millions of assholes out of that group. The people who were anti-mask were the guy who was juggling shit, not the vast majority of us who are disgusted by it. Our brains were hacked, and social media simply pushed it to the forefront.
People are a little bit wiser to this now. Our brains are latching onto these polls that are showing Trump ahead, without for a second saying "hey, there's been no change in these past few weeks that would shift favor to him".
I'm feeling confident because of that one guy who describes the Thirteen Keys to winning the election. He's predicted with pretty scary accuracy, and he has Harris with the majority of the keys. Now I'm not saying Trump isn't going to try and steal the election again when he loses, but him losing is become more and more likely. And if there is more widespread early voting that portends good for Harris, it's going to become a wipeout.
I completely agree with this theory, and would add that the juggler gets paid for each person he shocks/horrifies and is encouraged to continually be more shocking/horrifying to take attention from others doing similarly horrible things.
As for Allan Lichtman, he gave my wife a bad grade on a paper in college, and she still harbors a lot of resentment against him and discredits him every 4 years when he makes the media rounds.
An honest to God cult of personality - formed around a failed steak salesman.
-Pruitt
Tom 1860 wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 12:12 am
So, having looked through the polls over the last month, is it safe to say that Trump is going to win this thing yet. It certainly looks like it is going that way following Harris' initial surge of support.
I mean, it's still possible. I'm fucking worried. I honestly think there's going to be violence at polling stations this year. (I thought that too in 2020, but I was wrong.)
I get the sense that there is much less energy and enthusiasm on the Trump side. I think he has the same number of supporters, but they don’t seem as passionate.
Sure. There's that.
But I feel like Republicans will throw out votes at the last minute in states where they control things. And then there's chaos.
And America doesn't arrest the assholes who do it.
Merrick Garland is MIA in all of this.
mister d wrote:Couldn't have pegged me better.
EnochRoot wrote:I mean, whatever. Johnnie's all hot cuz I ride him.
The Sybian wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 10:50 am
As for Allan Lichtman, he gave my wife a bad grade on a paper in college, and she still harbors a lot of resentment against him and discredits him every 4 years when he makes the media rounds.
Sybian's wife, who's probably posts as "The Fleshlight", on GardeningFrog or whatever blog she frequents wrote:
Oh, Professor Lichtman, you're back with your Thirteen Keys? Well here's my Fourteen Keys that you're a fucking asshole.
My avatar corresponds on my place in the Swamp posting list with the all-time Home Run list. Tied with Mel Ott at Number 25 is Miguel Cabrera at 511.
P.D.X. wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 10:53 am
yeah The Social Dilemma on netflix outlines all of that
and to expound further since that doc is a few years old... the news orgs have certainly caught wind of the social apps methods. Just another variation of "if it bleeds, it leads".
Yeah, I check in on CNN and while the majority of the coverage is pretty straight-up, there is always something along the lines of "Panic in the Harris Campaign" or some other subjective bullshit.
It's just so obvious.
You can lead a horse to fish, but you can't fish out a horse.
This is what I’m hanging onto. The polls underreported Trump support in 16 and 20, but then underreported Dem and Pro-Choice support in 22. I’m hoping there are a ton of pro-choice voters who aren’t getting picked up as likely voters by the pollsters.
Plus I hope the recent spate of stories about Trump’s feebleness and fascistness may help.
"He swore fluently, obscenely, and without repeating himself for just over a minute."
Mick Herron, "Down Cemetery Road"
Ok, so polls might be financed by right sided money, but surely fewer people will turn out to vote for Harris if they believe she is going to lose. What about voter apathy and the impact of such polls on voters..
Giff wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 1:40 pm
I don't think that voters who pay close attention to polls are voters who are unlikely to vote because of what the close polls say.
Or the polls might motivate others who assume Trump will lose.
I think there’s a good chance that if the polls in 2016 showed the race was tied, more people would’ve come out for Clinton.
"He swore fluently, obscenely, and without repeating himself for just over a minute."
Mick Herron, "Down Cemetery Road"
Yeah, that's not a thing. Especially because no one trusts these polls.
Just about all of the reporting on this election are calling it a dead heat, virtually tied race. I haven't seen or heard one story saying one or the other candidate is going to win or lose.
Turnout is going to be extremely high.
You can lead a horse to fish, but you can't fish out a horse.
Nonlinear FC wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 1:44 pm
Yeah, that's not a thing. Especially because no one trusts these polls.
Just about all of the reporting on this election are calling it a dead heat, virtually tied race. I haven't seen or heard one story saying one or the other candidate is going to win or lose.
Turnout is going to be extremely high.
This. Everything I’ve seen is within the margin of error. I think Harris takes the popular vote, but there are so many advantages for Trump in electoral college. We aren’t going to know for days or weeks, and Trump will create chaos, so nobody will believe the results if he loses.
An honest to God cult of personality - formed around a failed steak salesman.
-Pruitt
Nonlinear FC wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 1:44 pm
Yeah, that's not a thing. Especially because no one trusts these polls.
Just about all of the reporting on this election are calling it a dead heat, virtually tied race. I haven't seen or heard one story saying one or the other candidate is going to win or lose.
Turnout is going to be extremely high.
This. Everything I’ve seen is within the margin of error. I think Harris takes the popular vote, but there are so many advantages for Trump in electoral college. We aren’t going to know for days or weeks, and Trump will create chaos, so nobody will believe the results if he loses.
I kinda hope this happens as long as it ends with Harris as POTUS. My response to anyone bringing that garbage up to me is to just "admit" we cheated and it fucking worked.
Nonlinear FC wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 1:44 pm
Yeah, that's not a thing. Especially because no one trusts these polls.
Just about all of the reporting on this election are calling it a dead heat, virtually tied race. I haven't seen or heard one story saying one or the other candidate is going to win or lose.
Turnout is going to be extremely high.
This. Everything I’ve seen is within the margin of error. I think Harris takes the popular vote, but there are so many advantages for Trump in electoral college. We aren’t going to know for days or weeks, and Trump will create chaos, so nobody will believe the results if he loses.
Unfortunately we need to get over the margin of error, the electoral college, *and* the margin of fuckery.
"He swore fluently, obscenely, and without repeating himself for just over a minute."
Mick Herron, "Down Cemetery Road"
Nonlinear FC wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 1:44 pm
Yeah, that's not a thing. Especially because no one trusts these polls.
Just about all of the reporting on this election are calling it a dead heat, virtually tied race. I haven't seen or heard one story saying one or the other candidate is going to win or lose.
Turnout is going to be extremely high.
If the turnout is extremely high like you think, my bet is it’s more people, especially women, who are furious that abortion is curtailed than there are people's fired up to put Fryguy and CouchFucker back in positions of power.
I’m not suggesting I can’t be wrong. No one knows anything. But a high turnout is really a death knell for the party that espouses the less popular positions. I keep looking back at what happened in France and the UK this last summer for guidance. As racist and nationalist those two countries can be, the radical side was the right, and the high turnout trounced the right.
My avatar corresponds on my place in the Swamp posting list with the all-time Home Run list. Tied with Mel Ott at Number 25 is Miguel Cabrera at 511.
Really, really hate reading of all the early voting being done by Republicans on Xitter. Looks like that side is just as motivated to vote. Fucking Electoral College being the bane of our collective existence.
mister d wrote:Couldn't have pegged me better.
EnochRoot wrote:I mean, whatever. Johnnie's all hot cuz I ride him.
Johnnie wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 11:07 pm
Really, really hate reading of all the early voting being done by Republicans on Xitter. Looks like that side is just as motivated to vote. Fucking Electoral College being the bane of our collective existence.
Get off twitter...Elon is fully in the bag for Trump.
Take Pennsylvania. We examined all the polls from October that FiveThirtyEight includes in its averages. As of October 22, there have been 19 polls conducted wholly in the month of October so far. Eleven are either from right-leaning firms or from firms polling for right-wing news outlets, such as the Daily Mail and The Telegraph. Seven were conducted by nonideological pollsters, sometimes in conjunction with mainstream news outlets (the Times and The Washington Post), sometimes on their own. Trump leads in the right-leaning polls by an average of 1 percent; Harris leads in the other polls by an average of about 1.7 percent. (The remaining poll was done by Atlas Intel, a Brazilian firm about which little is known and which is polling heavily this cycle.)
"We're not the smartest people in the world. We go down the straightaway and turn left. That's literally what we do." -- Clint Bowyer
Jason Kirk's weekly Watch Grid is a must read first for how to line up your weekend's college football viewing schedule, and this year he's added an intro essay. This week's is so fucking great.
He's very high up there on my list of greatest writers around these days.
Until everything is less insane, I'm mixing weed with wine.
govmentchedda wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2024 8:06 amJason Kirk's weekly Watch Grid is a must read first for how to line up your weekend's college football viewing schedule, and this year he's added an intro essay. This week's is so fucking great.
He's very high up there on my list of greatest writers around these days.
He changed how I think about Belinda Carlisle lyrics.
“The running, the jumping... a celebration of life.”
Johnnie wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 11:07 pm
Really, really hate reading of all the early voting being done by Republicans on Xitter. Looks like that side is just as motivated to vote. Fucking Electoral College being the bane of our collective existence.
Early voting doesn’t tell us much anyway. Presumably the early voters are the motivated ones who would have voted anyway. And it’s such a new process that you can’t reliably compare this election’s early vote with prior ones.
Party ID doesn’t say much either. I’m a registered Republican who voted a straight Dem ticket.
"He swore fluently, obscenely, and without repeating himself for just over a minute."
Mick Herron, "Down Cemetery Road"
Johnnie wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 11:07 pm
Really, really hate reading of all the early voting being done by Republicans on Xitter. Looks like that side is just as motivated to vote. Fucking Electoral College being the bane of our collective existence.
I wouldn't suggest that you do what I do, but I follow ABC News on Instagram for some reason, and I go on the comments occasionally and talk shit to Trumpers how they're backing a loser and don't really back the blue because they couldn't give a shit about Capitol police. I ask them how they're going to storm the Capitol this time when Trump loses, because the Capital police will be ready this time. It doesn't add anything, and I'm not changing anyone's mind, but knowing I can make those shitheads angry, even for ten seconds, makes it worth it for me.
My avatar corresponds on my place in the Swamp posting list with the all-time Home Run list. Tied with Mel Ott at Number 25 is Miguel Cabrera at 511.
Johnnie wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 11:07 pm
Really, really hate reading of all the early voting being done by Republicans on Xitter. Looks like that side is just as motivated to vote. Fucking Electoral College being the bane of our collective existence.
I wouldn't suggest that you do what I do, but I follow ABC News on Instagram for some reason, and I go on the comments occasionally and talk shit to Trumpers how they're backing a loser and don't really back the blue because they couldn't give a shit about Capitol police. I ask them how they're going to storm the Capitol this time when Trump loses, because the Capital police will be ready this time. It doesn't add anything, and I'm not changing anyone's mind, but knowing I can make those shitheads angry, even for ten seconds, makes it worth it for me.
When I see a Trumper spouting off in the Washington Post comments, I ask if their Trump-branded bible from China has been delivered yet.
P.D.X. wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2024 11:45 am
Had a maga hat come into my booth in ABQ a couple weeks ago and bought a print so I immediately donated the proceeds to kamala. felt good.
There is a car dealership in Bethesda with a Trump sign up. Like... That is absolute madness in this county, let alone that part of the county. I won't buy from a normal dealership ever again, but I was tempted to stop in and let a manager know how batshit crazy it is for their business to proclaim allegiance to that fucker around here.
You can lead a horse to fish, but you can't fish out a horse.
Anyone else a little spooked by the fact that if there's a repeat of 2020 and the election is called on the Saturday after, that will be November 9 (Kristallnacht)?
"He swore fluently, obscenely, and without repeating himself for just over a minute."
Mick Herron, "Down Cemetery Road"
Full court MAGA around here. In the past few weeks we've have Vivek, some MAGA bus tour, Trump rally on Saturday and Now Trump is coming to the OSU/PSU game. I'm pretty sure he will get cheers at the game, but the rally will be relatively empty in the arena. AOC was here last week, but not much else from the Dems.
edit: Forgot that Musk was at the State College airport for a few hours last week on a stopover. That doesn't really count...
