Presidential Election 2024

[Johnnie]

The best part of the Selzer poll is that we'll see if it's true this week. There's no "what if?" about it.

And if it is, Nate Bronze and the entire polling industrial complex can go and get fucked.

(Well, they can anyway, but I'm just saying.)

[Steve of phpBB]

the Selzer final poll from Iowa a real earthquake moment. We can talk after Tuesday night about what a shit show polling has been this year and what I think has been happening, but...not yet.

In any event, calling my shot.

She will win.

the underestimation of how angry women are post-Dobbs by the political DC press and the usual polling suspects is hilarious in hindsight. Shoutout nonlinear.

[tennbengal]

I said what I said.

[DaveInSeattle]

How's everyone feeling?

I'm going with "nauseously optimistic"....

[L-Jam3]

Like a Chicago Bulls fan before Round 1 of the ‘96 playoffs. I’m almost at the point to wanting to watch the results on Fox News just to drink the tears.

[brian]

Like a Chicago Bulls fan before Round 1 of the ‘96 playoffs. I’m almost at the point to wanting to watch the results on Fox News just to drink the tears.

I am not here. Nauseous sounds about right.

[DSafetyGuy]

It's okay to put your phone down and ignore things at some point tomorrow evening. Watch a show on a streaming service, a movie, something else. My wife and I did in four years ago. It can be done.

[Johnnie]

How's everyone feeling?

I'm going with "nauseously optimistic"....

This.

[mister d]

It's okay to put your phone down and ignore things at some point tomorrow evening. Watch a show on a streaming service, a movie, something else. My wife and I did in four years ago. It can be done.

When Villanova was in their first final, I went to bed before tip-off because I knew I didn't want to see any of it. Considering this again but I know I won't do it.

[Giff]

It's okay to put your phone down and ignore things at some point tomorrow evening. Watch a show on a streaming service, a movie, something else. My wife and I did in four years ago. It can be done.

When Villanova was in their first final, I went to bed before tip-off because I knew I didn't want to see any of it. Considering this again but I know I won't do it.

You were like 5, it was past your bedtime anyway.

[Jerloma]

Not gonna lie, I'm in complete doom & gloom mode.

[Giff]

I go back and forth tbh.

[govmentchedda]

Blue wave coming. I'm a little nauseously optimistic for sure, but I think this thing is a rout. I think Florida is in play and I think we pass pot and abortion constitutional amendments. Pretty stoked that I just saw that my son's mail in ballot (from Italy) was received and counted. $100 well spent.

[Nonlinear FC]

It's okay to put your phone down and ignore things at some point tomorrow evening. Watch a show on a streaming service, a movie, something else. My wife and I did in four years ago. It can be done.

I find this to be very easy to do. Check back in at the top of the hour to see if there's anything definitive going on. Not worth watching this shit for 4 hours.

Then again, I don't watch drafts live.

[DaveInSeattle]

It's okay to put your phone down and ignore things at some point tomorrow evening. Watch a show on a streaming service, a movie, something else. My wife and I did in four years ago. It can be done.

I'm going to try to do that as well. And turning off the notifications on my phone.

[A_B]

Not only does my state really not matter but it also is one of the first to close. May have been the first announced last time. Anyway, if the results in KY are closer than 2020 it will make for an interesting night elsewhere.

[Tom 1860]

Quietly shitting myself and I don't live anywhere near the USA. I am hoping the voters see the potential of a Trump return and vote like the French do when a Le Pen is running - Make everyone shit themselves and then step up and slay the ultra right wing monster.

Whatever happens on Tuesday, the courts will be involved. If there is a Trump loss, no matter the margin, there will be issues on the streets, people are going to die and buildings are going to burn.

[sancarlos]

I agree with Tom’s expectations. But, I’m feeling oddly confident about the results we see this week. Whistling past the graveyard?

[Steve of phpBB]

Like a Chicago Bulls fan before Round 1 of the ‘96 playoffs. I’m almost at the point to wanting to watch the results on Fox News just to drink the tears.

I felt way better then than I do right now.

Nauseously optimistic is a fantastic phrase. Did you come up with that, Dave?

(I want to know how guilty I should feel when I steal that for the next few days.)

[brian]

Like a Chicago Bulls fan before Round 1 of the ‘96 playoffs. I’m almost at the point to wanting to watch the results on Fox News just to drink the tears.

I felt way better then than I do right now.

Nauseously optimistic is a fantastic phrase. Did you come up with that, Dave?

(I want to know how guilty I should feel when I steal that for the next few days.)

I saw it quoted from a Harris lieutenant in a story Saturday but it fits.

[Steve of phpBB]

It's okay to put your phone down and ignore things at some point tomorrow evening. Watch a show on a streaming service, a movie, something else. My wife and I did in four years ago. It can be done.

I'm going to try to do that as well. And turning off the notifications on my phone.

The only way thing that could possibly work for me is driving to somewhere that has no cell service.

Though my son suggested we hit the gummies tomorrow night. That sounds like a great idea - I'd start now but I have to defend depositions tomorrow.

[Nonlinear FC]

..there will be issues on the streets, people are going to die and buildings are going to burn.

No there won't. People have been predicting this every election cycle since 2018, including massive voter intimidation and it just doesn't happen.

These folks are a lot of talk. Yes, they were all duped into Jan 6... That took a massive amount of organizing and it was in the wake of months of Trump and his idiots riling them up.

Nothing is going to happen this time because the authorities are on hyper alert this cycle. Trust me... I'm on a lot of calls and emails about this in the DMV. Anyone tries any organized bullshit around here, they are going to get fucked up.

[P.D.X.]

Didn’t watch the last one. Not watching this one either.

Inexplicably have an HOA meeting in the evening

[Giff]

I was just chatting with Kelli about it and I'm actually thinking if he loses, especially if it's not as close as the last one, then we're not going to see a bunch of whining from him or his base. I think he will realize he's more vulnerable than ever to real punishment ever if he loses and will actually do the smart thing for once and just fade away. I also think if that happens, there will be some deal done that allows Trump to live the rest of his life not worrying about jail or future real punishment as long as he just goes the fuck away. And that allows the country to kinda go back to normal.

[Tom 1860]

Trump has had four years to talk up election fraud and there are a lot of people out there who believe that last election was a fraud.

There is no way there will not be protests if Trump loses and if he does, there is no way those protests will all end peacefully with people returning to their homes.

When Keir Starmer was elected in the UK, it took a triple murder just outside Liverpool to cause enough shit to stir up violence in areas all over the country. People don't have the same feelings about Starmer and the Labour party as they about the Harris/Biden. Trump has been stirring the pot and I don't see that changing.

I hope I am wrong, but fuck me you have a lot of armed mad fuckers in the USA, who are looking for someone to blame about their shit state of affairs.

[DaveInSeattle]

Like a Chicago Bulls fan before Round 1 of the ‘96 playoffs. I’m almost at the point to wanting to watch the results on Fox News just to drink the tears.

I felt way better then than I do right now.

Nauseously optimistic is a fantastic phrase. Did you come up with that, Dave?

(I want to know how guilty I should feel when I steal that for the next few days.)

Heard/read it somewhere. Seems like the perfect description.

I just get the feeling that Trump knows he's losing. He's seems completely worn out, his crowds are low energy, and he's been throwing out any crazy ass thing he can to see if it gains any traction. (Fluoridation in drinking water? Really?)

I was reading something by Jamelle Bouie over the weekend, and he was saying that the whole "Biden called us garbage" thing didn't break through the noise, so Puerto Rican's voters went from the racist comedian calling them garbage, to seeing Trump driving around in a garbage truck.

And then there's whole crazy story about some squirrel, which I have no idea what its about.

[duff]

Trump has had four years to talk up election fraud and there are a lot of people out there who believe that last election was a fraud.

There is no way there will not be protests if Trump loses and if he does, there is no way those protests will all end peacefully with people returning to their homes.

When Keir Starmer was elected in the UK, it took a triple murder just outside Liverpool to cause enough shit to stir up violence in areas all over the country. People don't have the same feelings about Starmer and the Labour party as they about the Harris/Biden. Trump has been stirring the pot and I don't see that changing.

I hope I am wrong, but fuck me you have a lot of armed mad fuckers in the USA, who are looking for someone to blame about their shit state of affairs.

Most MAGAts are all bluster. Only a handful will even think about starting something, but when they can't get more than 15-20 together, they will cower like the rest of them. MAGAts seem to believe that the military will back them, but that is so far from the truth.

[Tom 1860]

I hope everything is fine, Trump loses and hides away hoping he can avoid jail time.

[sancarlos]

..there will be issues on the streets, people are going to die and buildings are going to burn.

No there won't. People have been predicting this every election cycle since 2018, including massive voter intimidation and it just doesn't happen.

These folks are a lot of talk. Yes, they were all duped into Jan 6... That took a massive amount of organizing and it was in the wake of months of Trump and his idiots riling them up.

Nothing is going to happen this time because the authorities are on hyper alert this cycle. Trust me... I'm on a lot of calls and emails about this in the DMV. Anyone tries any organized bullshit around here, they are going to get fucked up.

You might be right, as far as reaction from Trump himself, the Republican party, and his own apparatus (I sure hope you're right). But, he has a million unhinged lunatics who believe all the conspiracy theories. He can't control all of them, even if he wanted to. I'll be surprised if there isn't some egregious behavior somewhere.

On a separate but similar issue - Trump has made veiled cryptic references to "a little secret", how Mike Johnson is going to help him become president, in any case.
https://www.msnbc.com/deadline-white-ho ... 2880837896

[Johnnie]

Unlike last time during the Inside Job, the President will activate the D.C. National Guard of shit goes sideways.

And the Democratic VP will oversee her own certification.

[Shirley]

Giff, I think you're nuts. Trump will never concede. He has the most sever case of narcissism I've ever seen. He's incapable of thinking he ever lost at anything, no matter the evidence otherwise.

I love "nauseously optimistic." I'll be using that.

I will say that Iowa poll and the analysis behind it gave me a new shot of hope/optimism. I already kind of think Harris will win, but if that poll is accurate - and it seems like it's a good one - it could have HUGE meaning. And not just in Iowa.

God, I would love to see this turn into a rout. I want Trump to be humiliated. Then convicted a few more times. Then go to prison. And then die on a prison toilet.

[DaveInSeattle]

And then there's whole crazy story about some squirrel, which I have no idea what its about.

Oh boy...I just saw what the story about the squirrel is...and I really wish I didn't know.

[Tom 1860]

And then there's whole crazy story about some squirrel, which I have no idea what its about.

Oh boy...I just saw what the story about the squirrel is...and I really wish I didn't know.

Fuck me the US is mad as...

BBC are running this story as it has become news worthy: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdj3l1zyj93o

[Giff]

Giff, I think you're nuts. Trump will never concede. He has the most sever case of narcissism I've ever seen. He's incapable of thinking he ever lost at anything, no matter the evidence otherwise.

You are most likely right. Just trying to envision a world post-trump where we don't have to hear him all the damn time.

[mister d]

God, I would love to see this turn into a rout. I want Trump to be humiliated.

I'd stop the fantasy here and have him pull a Budd Dwyer at whatever campaign rally tomorrow night. Like he wouldn't (know how to) but man ... imagine that?

[L-Jam3]

I'm working on another theory. This one isn't as amusing as the shit-jugglers, but here I go.

2016 was a surprise, as Trump was behind in the polls all the way until it mattered. So I'm thinking if there was a group that was undercounted to an extent that when they came into play it swung the election. Also there's always been an adage that a pissed-off voter was a likely voter. So I thought to myself who could be a group in 2016 that was (a) undercounted, and (b) extremely pissed off? And the group I came up with was racist-ass white people.

Now sure, no one would have answered a poll and said that they're voting for Trump because voting for a Democrat is going to open things up to diversity, and with more blacks/women/POCs in positions of power then they would likely lose power due to the talent pool expanding. Which is one of the central tenets of racism in America: if black people now have opportunities, then they'll be more talented people than me I'll have to compete against, and I'll lose my power/job/seat at the table/political strength/potential dating partner. In 2016, after 8 years of a black man as President, and a candidate who was assuaging their racist fears and hatreds, that's a pissed-off group who would be ready to vote. And while the number might not be particularly large, it would've been enough to swing a few states enough to push them Red.

Let's look in 2024. Is there a group that is both (a) undercounted in terms of voting propensity, and (b) hugely fucking pissed off? I think with the Dobbs decision, that group is women. Who both constitute a larger percentage of the population and vote at a higher rate than men. Practically every election has gone the way of abortion protection since the decision, in Senate races, to barely taking the House during midterms (which almost always becomes a bloodbath to the party in the White House), to state constitutional amendments codifying protections. Women are fucking furious over Dobbs. And they know exactly who is at fault for this.

In reality, white women have a significant effect on every state or larger level election, as they're the largest voting bloc by race/gender than any other. White women helped Trump get elected in 2016. But now Dobbs galvanized white women to punish the one who did this. And that's a group that is being seriously underestimated. That's why I'm thinking this is a washout.

[Nonlinear FC]

I mean... Yeah.

[brian]

That’s a hopeful theory and there’s some data points to back it up but tomorrow is when the rubber meets the road. Early hopeful signs might be Trump running poorer than expected in early red states like Kentucky (as AB noted).

If Trump is running 5+ points under his 2020 margin in KY he’s probably cooked.

[mister d]

One thing that's confusing or troubling me is that "first woman president" is barely a thing right now. Like its completely being overshadowed by the race itself which is probably a good thing unless its not and the sexism factor, overt or covert, is again not being accounted for.

[tennbengal]

I'm working on another theory. This one isn't as amusing as the shit-jugglers, but here I go.

2016 was a surprise, as Trump was behind in the polls all the way until it mattered. So I'm thinking if there was a group that was undercounted to an extent that when they came into play it swung the election. Also there's always been an adage that a pissed-off voter was a likely voter. So I thought to myself who could be a group in 2016 that was (a) undercounted, and (b) extremely pissed off? And the group I came up with was racist-ass white people.

Now sure, no one would have answered a poll and said that they're voting for Trump because voting for a Democrat is going to open things up to diversity, and with more blacks/women/POCs in positions of power then they would likely lose power due to the talent pool expanding. Which is one of the central tenets of racism in America: if black people now have opportunities, then they'll be more talented people than me I'll have to compete against, and I'll lose my power/job/seat at the table/political strength/potential dating partner. In 2016, after 8 years of a black man as President, and a candidate who was assuaging their racist fears and hatreds, that's a pissed-off group who would be ready to vote. And while the number might not be particularly large, it would've been enough to swing a few states enough to push them Red.

Let's look in 2024. Is there a group that is both (a) undercounted in terms of voting propensity, and (b) hugely fucking pissed off? I think with the Dobbs decision, that group is women. Who both constitute a larger percentage of the population and vote at a higher rate than men. Practically every election has gone the way of abortion protection since the decision, in Senate races, to barely taking the House during midterms (which almost always becomes a bloodbath to the party in the White House), to state constitutional amendments codifying protections. Women are fucking furious over Dobbs. And they know exactly who is at fault for this.

In reality, white women have a significant effect on every state or larger level election, as they're the largest voting bloc by race/gender than any other. White women helped Trump get elected in 2016. But now Dobbs galvanized white women to punish the one who did this. And that's a group that is being seriously underestimated. That's why I'm thinking this is a washout.

co-sign. yes. It's obvious but somehow...not.