NFL Week 13 (Thanksgiving Weekend)

Post by **brian** » Tue Nov 26, 2024 5:42 pm

From ESPN Research:

Since 2021, the Lions are 44-18 against the spread - the best 4-year record ATS in the Super Bowl era.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Nov 26, 2024 5:44 pm

Wow that’s amazing.

Post by **brian** » Tue Nov 26, 2024 6:06 pm

mister d wrote: Tue Nov 26, 2024 5:44 pm Wow that’s amazing.

I can’t tell if you’re being sarcastic or not but it is a little nuts that it’s almost as good as the best SU record in that span - Kansas City (47-15). ATS record over a 4-year span shouldn’t ever be that close to best SU record.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Nov 26, 2024 7:24 pm

I just googled, lions are 46-19 over whatever timespan it returned, panthers are 22 wins and jets 23. Seems like the top-side and bottom-side aren’t drastically different?

Post by **brian** » Tue Nov 26, 2024 8:11 pm

In theory every team should be around .500. It doesn’t work that way of course but that’s the expected record.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Nov 26, 2024 9:56 pm

Maybe if bettors didn’t have biases that have to be factored into the lines?

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Wed Nov 27, 2024 3:07 am

Can’t bet from Europe but still going to post my would be plays this week

1. Chicago +10 @ Detroit

Good for the lions record ATS and all but this is a big number from a team that seems to hold opposing offenses pretty well

2. Giants and Cowboys over 37

I don’t care who is playing qb, these defenses are too bad for a total this low

3. Green Bay -3 vs Miami

The dolphins on a 25 degree day? Yeah I’ll take Green Bay. By the same token I kinda like under 47

4. Las Vegas + 12 @ KC

Once again, Kansas City chiefs impossible challenge: cover a large spread

5. Arizona +3.5 @ Minnesota

Cardinals seem decent, Minnesota is tough to figure out, I’ll take the points

6. Jags +5 vs Houston

IF Trevor Lawrence is back, I’ll take the jags side of this. I don’t like the jags but we are still getting to bet against Houston being treated as a good team

7. Pittsburgh +3 @ Cincinnati

Why are we still treating Cincinnati like they are good

8. Tennessee and Washington over 44.5

Just seems low. I also kinda like Tennessee +5

9. Philadelphia +3 @ Baltimore

Eagles are on one right now and baltimores defense just ain’t it

10. Cleveland +5.5 @ Denver

I hate to take a team traveling to the mountain to take on the broncos but Cleveland with Jameis is IMO a much better roster than the Broncs

I like a ton of bets this week, may have to set up a vpn on the phone

Brontoburglar · Post by **Brontoburglar** » Wed Nov 27, 2024 9:07 am

A Drew Lock start for the Giants might move the number up a couple points TBH

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Wed Nov 27, 2024 12:19 pm

Brontoburglar wrote: Wed Nov 27, 2024 9:07 am A Drew Lock start for the Giants might move the number up a couple points TBH

I’m shocked he is behind Tommy DeVito on the depth chart.

rass · Post by **rass** » Thu Nov 28, 2024 1:56 pm

“Coach E”

Does Nantz know he doesn’t have to spell it, he just has to say it? Or has he earned a nickname?

Post by **brian** » Thu Nov 28, 2024 2:11 pm

rass wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 1:56 pm “Coach E”

Does Nantz know he doesn’t have to spell it, he just has to say it? Or has he earned a nickname?

That’s his grade.

Post by **brian** » Thu Nov 28, 2024 2:21 pm

Never heard of this Shaboozie (I’m sure that’s not spelled right but whatevs) but he’s pretty good.

rass · Post by **rass** » Thu Nov 28, 2024 2:29 pm

brian wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 2:21 pm Never heard of this Shaboozie (I’m sure that’s not spelled right but whatevs) but he’s pretty good.

Better than Kevin Harlan.

I’m 3/4 of the way to making my wife genuinely mad because she originally thought the lyric was “frisky” not “tipsy” and I keep mentioning it.

rass · Post by **rass** » Thu Nov 28, 2024 2:33 pm

Also, I get that they’ve played well in the blueberries and that they’re so much better than the all grays (yuck) but the Lions can look better uni-wise.

rass · Post by **rass** » Thu Nov 28, 2024 2:35 pm

Williams is lucky he didn’t get both knees blown out on that play before the TD

Post by **Sabo** » Thu Nov 28, 2024 2:37 pm

rass wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 2:35 pm Williams is lucky he didn’t get both knees blown out on that play before the TD

Right? At first I thought he had a shattered leg or knee based on how he went down.

Hell of an answer to that hit, too.

rass · Post by **rass** » Thu Nov 28, 2024 3:38 pm

Refs in protest the good team mode

Giff · Post by **Giff** » Thu Nov 28, 2024 3:40 pm

rass wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 3:38 pm Refs in protest the good team mode

Haha yup. What a fucking joke of a call. Ignore the helmet being ripped off and using Allen’s head to get up, let’s flag the guy who’s mad that happened to him.

Post by **brian** » Thu Nov 28, 2024 3:43 pm

This is fucking brutal. Lions gonna have to start playing offensive players on D

rass · Post by **rass** » Thu Nov 28, 2024 3:54 pm

Make up call LOL

DSafetyGuy · Post by **DSafetyGuy** » Thu Nov 28, 2024 3:56 pm

Just setting up another blocked field goal because why learn from past mistakes.

Giff · Post by **Giff** » Thu Nov 28, 2024 3:58 pm

“About ripped his helmet off” I guess if he had it wouldn’t have been a penalty, Tony.

Giff · Post by **Giff** » Thu Nov 28, 2024 4:00 pm

LOL is he trying to get fired??

rass · Post by **rass** » Thu Nov 28, 2024 4:00 pm

Leave it to the Bears to fuck up so bad we can’t even really make fun of the lions

DSafetyGuy · Post by **DSafetyGuy** » Thu Nov 28, 2024 4:00 pm

Just another loss late in a game because of the complete ineptitude of management.

Post by **brian** » Thu Nov 28, 2024 4:02 pm

DSafetyGuy wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 4:00 pm Just another loss late in a game because of the complete ineptitude of management.

Is there something worse than fired because he should be that.

(That said, Williams bears a lot of blame there too.)

rass · Post by **rass** » Thu Nov 28, 2024 4:06 pm

brian wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 4:02 pm
DSafetyGuy wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 4:00 pm Just another loss late in a game because of the complete ineptitude of management.
Is there something worse than fired because he should be that.

(That said, Williams bears a lot of blame there too.)

Yeah. They had a timeout Coach E could have salvaged an unreasonable FG attempt at least

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Thu Nov 28, 2024 4:06 pm

That was hilarious. People in my house confused because I'm agitated even though the team I'm pulling for won.

WTactualF was that?

Stunningly incompetent.

(Adverb, motherfuckers.)

DSafetyGuy · Post by **DSafetyGuy** » Thu Nov 28, 2024 4:08 pm

Just sent this text to a friend in response to him asking me about the fuckup in question:

For the record, I want you to note that I will use “friend of mine who does not watch the NFL immediately texted me about it” to sum up how terrible that was.

Post by **brian** » Thu Nov 28, 2024 4:19 pm

The Lions are fucked next week against the Packers unless they somehow get a bunch of guys back on D but at least they get 10 days off after that game. Lions haven’t lost consecutive games since October 2022 but feels like they’ll lose to Green Bay and Buffalo.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Thu Nov 28, 2024 4:20 pm

I thought the Bears calling their 2nd timeout after an incomplete pass was bad...

Post by **brian** » Thu Nov 28, 2024 4:23 pm

degenerasian wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 4:20 pm I thought the Bears calling their 2nd timeout after an incomplete pass was bad...

The one where a delay of game would have only been a 1 yard penalty (was it that one?) wasn’t great either.

Post by **brian** » Thu Nov 28, 2024 4:24 pm

That whole fourth quarter was like a fever dream tbh.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Thu Nov 28, 2024 4:27 pm

brian wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 4:23 pm
degenerasian wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 4:20 pm I thought the Bears calling their 2nd timeout after an incomplete pass was bad...
The one where a delay of game would have only been a 1 yard penalty (was it that one?) wasn’t great either.

That was their first timeout.
Their 2nd time out was at 40 seconds, after the PI call, before Williams was sacked which then caused the debacle.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Thu Nov 28, 2024 4:32 pm

Let me disclose the location:

Al Udeid Air Base.

Post by **brian** » Thu Nov 28, 2024 4:32 pm

So they arguably called two timeouts when they shouldn’t have and went to zeroes with the one when they should.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Thu Nov 28, 2024 4:43 pm

brian wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 4:32 pm So they arguably called two timeouts when they shouldn’t have and went to zeroes with the one when they should.

Yup and running a QB draw 2nd and 20 at the 35 was also malpractice. Sacked for 6 yards and out of FG range.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Thu Nov 28, 2024 5:35 pm

brian wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 2:21 pm Never heard of this Shaboozie (I’m sure that’s not spelled right but whatevs) but he’s pretty good.

I can’t imagine what remote island I’d have had to take up residence on to have avoided that song over the last year

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Thu Nov 28, 2024 5:36 pm

Gunpowder wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 5:35 pm
brian wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 2:21 pm Never heard of this Shaboozie (I’m sure that’s not spelled right but whatevs) but he’s pretty good.
I can’t imagine what remote island I’d have had to take up residence on to have avoided that song over the last year

Front seat of a semi, apparently.

Post by **brian** » Thu Nov 28, 2024 5:43 pm

govmentchedda wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 5:36 pm
Gunpowder wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 5:35 pm
brian wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 2:21 pm Never heard of this Shaboozie (I’m sure that’s not spelled right but whatevs) but he’s pretty good.
I can’t imagine what remote island I’d have had to take up residence on to have avoided that song over the last year
Front seat of a semi, apparently.

Indeed. If its been released in the last 13 months and not played on a truck stop Muzak or been recommended to me specifically I likely haven’t heard it.