2024-25 MLB Offseason

[Rex]

They said we’ll give you the extra year but you’ll have to go to first base to get it ha ha ha ha ha ha

[brian]

Oh to return to this time when the Tigers were still relevant and Trump wasn’t.

[Steve of phpBB]

[mister d]

So Cole opted out, the Yankees told him they weren't tacking on a year and they both agreed to pretend the opt out never happened?

[mister d]

QO list. Really hate that Gleyber isn't on here:

Juan Soto (Yankees)
Corbin Burnes (Orioles)
Alex Bregman (Astros)
Max Fried (Braves)
Willy Adames (Brewers)
Pete Alonso (Mets)
Anthony Santander (Orioles)
Teoscar Hernandez (Dodgers)
Nick Pivetta (Red Sox)
Christian Walker (Diamondbacks)
Sean Manaea (Mets)
Luis Severino (Mets)
Nick Martinez (Reds)

[Rex]

Soto should take that qualifying offer imo

[mister d]

I need someone to fix this headline.

[brian]

Done. Just wanted to have some fun first.

[Rex]

Last 10 years didn’t really happen anyway

[mister d]

I’m not breaking any new ground when I say Soto getting north of half a billion and 12+ years can’t possibly work out, right? I know the best two-tool, early UFA comp (Miguel Cabrera) kinda did even past the original 8 years but still … right?

[L-Jam3]

What are you defining as not working out? Like if he was a top 5-10 offensive player for the first 6 years, then decline phase for 3, then a sunk cost for the last 3, is that not working out? Because I would take that as working out. As long as it’s a team that can absorb those last few unproductive years, that just seems to be the cost of doing business.

[brian]

I’m not breaking any new ground when I say Soto getting north of half a billion and 12+ years can’t possibly work out, right? I know the best two-tool, early UFA comp (Miguel Cabrera) kinda did even past the original 8 years but still … right?

It’s not your money so who cares? If it impacts their ability to keep guys coming out of the farm system when they hit FA that’s one thing but hard to imagine the Yankees ever getting that hard up for payroll.

[mister d]

The money is the one thing here I don’t care about. Make it $360MM for six years and I’m not complaining one bit.

[brian]

The money is the one thing here I don’t care about. Make it $360MM for six years and I’m not complaining one bit.

I suppose you have to trust the Yankees to be able to put him out to pasture the last three or four years of the deal if they have to which is easier said than done.

[mister d]

I think we're seeing right now how that looks with regular season Stanton, right? He's under contract for three more years at a lot of money so his .298 OBP is locked into 450 PAs at DH which then means Soto and Judge are in the OF every day and other guys can't rotate through for half days off. As good as his postseason was, everyone knows the Yankees would opt-out right this second if they could but since the money is paid, he's going to play regardless of results. Rizzo was under contract so when healthy we had a veteran .228/.301/.335 at 1B. To a lesser extent Verdugo, in the past DJLM and Donaldson and Hicks, etc, etc. Who knows what the org looks like in 2032 or whatever, but teams are loathe to sink costs when it comes to former stars, especially ones that will have been there for almost a decade no matter where he signs. Unless they go in willing to eat $200MM if need be, which I'm sure no team is, there's a good chance you'll have a decline player locked into the lineup for half a decade.



(And all of this assumes a similar economy in 8-10 years or that we'll even care about sports at that stage!)

[EnochRoot]

I think we're seeing right now how that looks with regular season Stanton, right? He's under contract for three more years at a lot of money so his .298 OBP is locked into 450 PAs at DH which then means Soto and Judge are in the OF every day and other guys can't rotate through for half days off. As good as his postseason was, everyone knows the Yankees would opt-out right this second if they could but since the money is paid, he's going to play regardless of results. Rizzo was under contract so when healthy we had a veteran .228/.301/.335 at 1B. To a lesser extent Verdugo, in the past DJLM and Donaldson and Hicks, etc, etc. Who knows what the org looks like in 2032 or whatever, but teams are loathe to sink costs when it comes to former stars, especially ones that will have been there for almost a decade no matter where he signs. Unless they go in willing to eat $200MM if need be, which I'm sure no team is, there's a good chance you'll have a decline player locked into the lineup for half a decade.



(And all of this assumes a similar economy in 8-10 years or that we'll even care about sports at that stage!)

Stanton played in only 125 or more games in 3 of his 8 seasons in Miami. It was always buyer beware with him, and the Yankees got burned. Soto is healthier (yet worse in the OF than Stanton was when he was younger) and should mash as a DH once they get Stanton off their books. A $48m/yr DH. Unless Cohen gets nuts and then you’re paying him more than $50m a year. To DH.

[A_B]

So Altuve is the only active player (qualified I suppose) to have a career BA over .300. Has to be fairly uncommon, but not sure it would ever get better at this point.

[degenerasian]

So Altuve is the only active player (qualified I suppose) to have a career BA over .300. Has to be fairly uncommon, but not sure it would ever get better at this point.

Who will be the next player to get 3000 hits?

Here's the active list, i don't know if anyone gets there. Freeman? Machado has 9 years left on his contract but isn't really a hits guy. And guys are taking more days off for lesser injuries or rest. I think Altuve ends up 200 hits short.

It might be Bobby Witt Jr in 15 years. currently 24 years old and 538 hits.

[mister d]

Fangraphs has Freeman at exactly .300 and Luis Arraez at .323 (his min to qualify is obviously a lot lower). Trout, of course, is at .299 because everything Trout falls apart.

[EnochRoot]

Maybe the golden at-bat nonsense will generate more milestones.

What a freakin joke that is.

[brian]

Maybe the golden at-bat nonsense will generate more milestones.

What a freakin joke that is.

That’s one of the stupidest ideas I’ve ever seen. The runner on 2nd to start extras is one bit of nonsense but this is a whole other stratosphere of dumb.

[mister d]

Its like he's just doing shit so people will remember him.

[brian]

I hope the geniuses at MLB HQ didn't spend too much time on this because I expect the reaction to be swift and merciless but I'm surprised it even got to the point where they're putting this feeler out.

Fuck while they're at it why don't they just change the rules to have an all-time pitcher for both teams so that there's no more UCL injuries. They can just have a guy up there throwing batting practice to both teams.

[degenerasian]

Maybe the golden at-bat nonsense will generate more milestones.

What a freakin joke that is.

That’s one of the stupidest ideas I’ve ever seen. The runner on 2nd to start extras is one bit of nonsense but this is a whole other stratosphere of dumb.

At least the ghost runner came from international rules, although in MLB I'd like to not see it until the 12th. Maybe have a ghost runner on 1st for the 10th and 11th.

But this golden bat thing is just out of thin air, some owners must want it.

[mister d]

From a standpoint of fan engagement and strategy and manufactured moments and all that, it would work, but so would having one guy per game play an inning naked. The batting order is foundational to baseball so of course Manfred wants to fuck it up. Like if Silver decided you could declare one possession per game worth 5x points or something.

[Ryan]

I love everything about it except the idea of MLB having to do it if that makes sense

[brian]

I love everything about it except the idea of MLB having to do it if that makes sense

No I get it. It’s exciting potentially but so is giving a team one at-bat where the pitcher has to pitch underhand.

[garyclark]

The Mets are paying Clay Holmes $38 million to see if he can be a starting pitcher, which is something he used to be, but was so bad at, he became a reliever. I don't have a problem with them taking the gamble. But that seems like a lot of money to find out.

[mister d]

I get the upside but it’s such a reinvention for an already valuable pitcher, especially since he was usually at his worst with extra rest. And while normally I’d defer to the Yankees here given their history of turning nothing pitchers effective, after the Mets rotation last year I think they get a solid benefit of the doubt. The entire thing will be predicated on whether he can find an effective pitch that doesn’t rely on drop and glove-side break because that won’t work multiple times through against lefties.

[mister d]

Heyman says Soto to the Mets, $765MM over 15 years.

[garyclark]

Heyman says Soto to the Mets, $765MM over 15 years.

I should have put money on this. Seemed inevitable.

As a Yankees fan, I don't mind this. Yanks were in this til the end. Made a more than valiant effort.

[EnochRoot]

Heyman says Soto to the Mets, $765MM over 15 years.

I should have put money on this. Seemed inevitable.

As a Yankees fan, I don't mind this. Yanks were in this til the end. Made a more than valiant effort.

The Yankees basically print money and could’ve afforded that price tag (still, that’s huge). Steinbrenner chose not to do it.

[mister d]

I would looooooove to see the Yankees (and other front office’s) models on Soto. You could tell me they have him at half that or they were the ones begging ownership to go high and I’d believe either.

[brian]

People will say Yankees dodged a bullet but that bullet wasn’t coming for them until 2033 at the soonest so I don’t know if that’s the right take.

[mister d]

If I were to try to make a non-monetary argument, I'd probably center (foreshadowing) it on what having both Soto and Judge does to your team defense. You're either paying $51MM per year for a DH or you're running Judge out in CF again where he's (1) at much higher injury risk and (2) not very good, the only regular CF negative in fielding run value. And LF isn't really a fix either because its pretty big in the Stadium so you're either wasting Judge's arm or you're giving Soto and even more difficult task when RF is enough of a stretch. And if you want to add in the rest of the roster (I wouldn't, because you can trade out), the top two prospects are also guys who probably shouldn't be your CF if you want to not have terrible team defense again. If you showed me a model that they're losing significantly less value than Soto individually brings because of the effect on overall OF range, I'd buy it. That said ... this team was one bad pitch and one bad inning away from being up 3-2 in the World Series, Soto is fun as shit to watch and I think my youngest might be a serious flight risk the same way I bailed on the Mets for trading Dykstra.

[mister d]

(Another thing I kinda wonder is if the Mets could have front-loaded the deal to almost dare him not to opt out of $46.5MM per for 10 years after making $60MM for the previous 5. Because at 5 years and $300MM before the option, every team in baseball should be all over it.)

[brian]

This is one of those cases where anyone trying to say “the Yankees were smart” or the “the Yankees were stupid” not to match (assuming that was an option) is full of shit. It’s such a long, hefty contract and Soto is such a unique talent that it’s gonna take years to determine if either one of those ends up being true.

[EnochRoot]

This is one of those cases where anyone trying to say “the Yankees were smart” or the “the Yankees were stupid” not to match (assuming that was an option) is full of shit. It’s such a long, hefty contract and Soto is such a unique talent that it’s gonna take years to determine if either one of those ends up being true.

I think a safe argument can be made that the Yankees got played. You don’t need hindsight to see that.

[mister d]

I think its also probable that the richer person was not going to let them match. Like think about how insane Ohtani's contract was seen as and that had deferrals for a guy who its a top 5 hitter and pitcher. I don't remember anyone at the time thinking Soto was going to approach that, let alone break it, right?



(I liked the comp to bidding on a house. If someone who has a lot more money than you decides they're absolutely getting the house, they're going to get the house and yelling at the owner they should have taken less from you is stupid. Good for Soto, good for the Mets, fuck me.)

[mister d]

8 years is obviously too long but I like Fried more than any of the other SPs out there, including Burnes. No complaints.



(Bonus is that while pitchers are obviously more fragile than hitters, they’re also easier to bury if they’ve gone bad.)