NFL Week 18

[Gunpowder]

Gotta get a strong week going into the 'yoffs.

Lines are weird this week but I'm taking some overs.


1. Bengals @ Steelers Over 48

No defense is going to be played and as long as the heavy snow falls today, a little cold shouldn't keep this one low.



2. Panthers @ Falcons Over 48

The Panthers seem to be giving up 48 points themselves every other week.



3. Jags @ Colts Over 43.5

Another indoor game that shouldn't feature much defense.



4. Bills First Drive Turnover +475

Josh Allen's likely to take one snap and sit, which means that it's Mitch Trubisky Time.



5. Geno Smith Over 0.5 Interceptions +125

He's thrown 15 picks on the season, so what's one more



6. Seahawks @ Rams Over 38.5

Yeah, it's Jimmy G throwing to Random McWideout, but I don't think that the score's gonna be this low.



7. Marvin Harrison Jr Over 99.5 Receiving Yards +550

Just a hunch



8. Chiefs +10.5 @ Denver

I don't care if it's Carson Wentz, this spread seems too high



9. Vikings @ Lions Over 56

You know the deal. They can't make this over high enough.


10. Browns @ Ravens Under 30 (+500)

Why not

[Jerloma]

So if you bet on an O/U, you can just pick the number and then the odds increase or decrease based off of that?

[rass]

The Titans are being sorta petty again this weekend, uni-wise.

[P.D.X.]

So if you bet on an O/U, you can just pick the number and then the odds increase or decrease based off of that?

Yeah that option exists

[brian]

Lions/Vikes first NFL game in history (regular season) between teams with 13 wins AND 14 wins.

[L-Jam3]

What’s the most combined wins if we’re including playoff wins? The Super Bowl between Montana and the 49ers (17-1 including playoffs) and Marino and the Dolphins (16-2 or 15-3, don’t recall exactly) coming in would be tough to beat.

[Johnnie]

This will end well for him in New England.

[Shirley]

What’s the most combined wins if we’re including playoff wins? The Super Bowl between Montana and the 49ers (17-1 including playoffs) and Marino and the Dolphins (16-2 or 15-3, don’t recall exactly) coming in would be tough to beat.

Well there are both more regular season and playoff games now, so it seems likely it's a more recent record.

[Johnnie]

Josh Allen is only starting to keep his "starts" stall alive. Then he's done for the day.

Drake Maye is starting and I haven't seen any indication on whether or not he'll play the whole game.

Not sure what position the Pats would end up drafting if they fuck around and win. But my God, there's serious incentive to lose their fucking asses on Sunday. If they don't....woooo boy.

Linking this so the Simmons haters can have some schadenfreude hopium.

[Jerloma]

I don't think it's that big of a deal if you drop to 3 or 4 when you're not drafting a QB. In fact, it may be even better. It stands to reason that the Browns, Titans, and Giants are all drafting QBs, so you likely end up getting the guy you were drafting #1 anyway but having to pay him less.

[HaulCitgo]

Johnnies got it right and you want trade bait not a cheaper player.

[Johnnie]

Look, I don't have faith in the current braintrust to not fuck it up, but on a rudimentary level more draft capital is better at the moment.

[L-Jam3]

Normally I wouldn’t think the potential miss of draft capital is that big of deal to get worked up about. But the Patriots are so devoid of talent practically everywhere besides QB that the extra picks would upgrade them at all the slots that are currently filled with replacement-level players.

[Jerloma]

Oh yeah, I didn't consider trading it.

[Gunpowder]

So if you bet on an O/U, you can just pick the number and then the odds increase or decrease based off of that?

Yeah they offer a bunch of alternate totals for most games.

[Gunpowder]

If there were a locked and loaded clear #1 pick QB I'd think it would have a lot of trade value but we don't even know if a QB will go first overall this year.

[Brontoburglar]

I don't think it's that big of a deal if you drop to 3 or 4 when you're not drafting a QB. In fact, it may be even better. It stands to reason that the Browns, Titans, and Giants are all drafting QBs, so you likely end up getting the guy you were drafting #1 anyway but having to pay him less.

not in this draft class

[Rush2112]

Not sure what position the Pats would end up drafting if they fuck around and win.

Someone one Reddit figured out that they'd probably be drafting 4th if they won this weekend, not bad but as mentioned I'd rather pick fourth and have have extra picks.

And please, please, please, please don't go Hunter.

[Brontoburglar]

I'm intrigued at what the casual college fan's argument against drafting Hunter is

[L-Jam3]

Since I’m really just casual watcher of CFB, do you see NFL Hunter more as a high-level CB who comes in and plays WR4 on a handful of packages, or a high-level WR who can play dime CB? Because I’m assuming that no matter how good he is, nobody can play 100 combined plays in an NFL game at a top-level capacity just due to fatigue. And if it is one of the two scenarios I outlined, where would be a good team he could land on? I’m thinking a good team that just had bad injury luck and ended up with a higher than normal pick would be the team. Like the 49ers if he lasted that long would make a ton of sense.

[HaulCitgo]

I never know 98% of these guys and probably less than half of the first rounders. Hunter the type of guy that loses value because kickoffs are dead. I'd like to have him return kicks and play defense while he tries to fit in on offense... But the athleticism jumps off screen and the ball skills have to be pretty good. I wouldn't mind hunter at all opposite Gonzalez but ideally two first round picks one on each line or even double up OL

[mister d]

I'm intrigued at what the casual college fan's argument against drafting Hunter is

As a non-watcher who knows who he is, I had the question LJam did. Is he college elite on aggregate or is he a 1st round talent at either/both of WR or CB (assuming its impossible to be full-time both in the NFL?)?

(Please don’t ask me to stop posting and instead do hundreds of hours of film study of him, his current comps and historical comps at both positions.)

[Brontoburglar]

I agree that it's very likely being a two-way player consistently in the NFL is not happening. It's remarkable he was on the field so much for Colorado.

But was also a shutdown corner and a No. 1 WR in college. If I had to pick right now, I'd say he'd be a better CB moonlighting at WR and on special teams, but I could see him playing wideout too. I think it depends on who drafts him and what their needs are. It's plausible that if you polled 20 NFL teams about his best positional fit you could have a 10/10 split. He's that good at both. (Charles Woodson feels like the best NFL comp to me? I think?)

However, that versatility is a big reason why he'd go in the top five, especially in such a weak QB class. There's not going to be the big offers from teams looking to move up. This is a deep draft at other positions outside of QB, and I'm not sure you're going to see anything like what we've seen in recent years with teams moving up into the top five/10 to get a QB.

[mister d]

That’s kinda my question, is he a top 1-2 WR or a top 1-2 CB because if not, shouldn’t he be outside the top 10? Multiple positions only has value if they’re both being played, right?

[Brontoburglar]

probably a top-15 pick exclusively on one side of the ball

[govmentchedda]

I agree with Bronto. Hunter is absolutely a stud at either position. Top 15 pick at either.

[mister d]

So if he goes over WR1 or CB1, isn’t that a bad pick unless the plan is to run him out on both sides atleast sometimes?

[govmentchedda]

I think he's probably CB1, but to be fair I don't really track that type of thing.

[HaulCitgo]

Hunter fits on pats and hopefully that's all you need for a market. First pick overall a much better asset than any pick after because you will get your guy whoever that is. Hunter would be huge for pats but still 6 and 20 something OL then try to buy a proven wideout. Still I'd say they try to piss it away cause Kraft can't get a nut

[Ryan]

So if he goes over WR1 or CB1, isn’t that a bad pick unless the plan is to run him out on both sides atleast sometimes?

Even if it’s not the plan, kinda nice to know that you have two chances. Like if he somehow just flat out sucks at being an NFL cornerback, you have something else to try in 2 years besides “just cut him”. The Raiders would obviously somehow cut him twice.

[sancarlos]

My aging father controls the remote when his tv is on. It’s always a job to convince him that the game currently being shown on the NFL Network is (usually) a repeat of an old game.

[DaveInSeattle]

My aging father controls the remote when his tv is on. It’s always a job to convince him that the game currently being shown on the NFL Network is (usually) a repeat of an old game.

Start asking him to place a bet on the games...

[Jerloma]

To be clear, we're cool with teams just blatantly tanking games now, right? I feel like there was a time that would have been controversial. Spirit of competition or some shit. We're past that now though?

[L-Jam3]

Shit. I’m not. I hated it when the Celtics did in ‘07 to try and draft Durant. I hated when the Astros did a full tear down in the early. And I really hated it when the 76ers did it. And for the NFL, it doesn’t even work. Ask Browns fans how much they thought their Process helped them.

If it’s one game at the end of the season to affect a potential playoff opponent, I could maybe accept it. Or if you’re locked into a playoff slot I don’t think you should feel required to help someone else get in (e.g. the Chiefs this week). But intentionally telling the coach to put out a shit roster once you’ve been eliminated from the playoffs? Fuck that.

[mister d]

I’ll say the same thing I’ve said for a long time now; a team is doing itself a disservice if it doesn’t tank in a league that rewards tanking. Put every non-playoff team into a flat odds lottery and tanking is over.

[Rex]

Don’t worry, whoever the Browns take is going to be bad

[Johnnie]

As a fan, I'm cool totally cool with it. There's incentive to do it. Either I want my team to win the championship every year or I want them to have a number 1/2/3 pick.

Being middle of the road is a detriment. Nothing shittier as a sports fan to root for a team that barely made the playoffs and gets smoked in the first round or just missed the playoffs and had clear needs but will have zero chance at drafting top tier talent.

[Jerloma]

I’ll say the same thing I’ve said for a long time now; a team is doing itself a disservice if it doesn’t tank in a league that rewards tanking. Put every non-playoff team into a flat odds lottery and tanking is over.

Snake draft.

[L-Jam3]

As a fan, I'm cool totally cool with it. There's incentive to do it. Either I want my team to win the championship every year or I want them to have a number 1/2/3 pick.

Being middle of the road is a detriment. Nothing shittier as a sports fan to root for a team that barely made the playoffs and gets smoked in the first round or just missed the playoffs and had clear needs but will have zero chance at drafting top tier talent.

I think that’s more of an NBA thing. Football by its very nature tends to reward teams with depth. If a team has a quality-enough QB, picking in the middle or even later in the round isn’t a kiss of death because there are so many slots to be filled anyway.

[sancarlos]

Looking ahead to the playoffs, it wouldn’t be shocking if all three NFC wild card teams won their first playoff games.