The National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum MMXV

[brian]

Whoa. What do you have against Pedroia? I don’t think he’s quite a HoFer, but I wouldn’t think a person who would have him on his ballot is making some huge travesty. Is this still anger of Whitaker’s utterly undeserved snub?

If only grit could be quantified into WAR…

He has a lower WAR than Ian Kinsler amongst some other similar comps and no one should be making an argument Kinsler is a HOFer but Kinsler wasn’t a media darling in an overrated market.

[brian]

(And Whitaker not being in is still a travesty but Pedroia’s WAR is still significantly smaller than Chet Fucking Lemon, who not even this Tiger fan will argue should get in Cooperstown without an entry ticket.

[degenerasian]

Anyone other than Ichiro any of the new guys get in? Sabathia will probably be just short.

Who joins Ichiro? Wagner got 73% last year. Anyone else?

[mister d]

Pretty sure Wagner crossed over to a give this time so it'll be him and Ichiro. Sabathia will get in once the dipshits who think a guy is a different candidate in Year 3 than he was in Year 1 come around.

[L-Jam3]

Dick Allen and The Cobra elected by the Veterans Committee.

[tennbengal]

THE COBRA!!!!

[mister d]

I'm sure a lot of sports writers are glad Allen isn't around to celebrate this. Fuck them all, he should have been in long before the veterans committee ever had a say.



(I don't think Parker is a HoFer but he seems super cool and one of my longest wiffle ball HRs ever was pretending to be him so no objections here.)

[sancarlos]

I’m glad they both made it. Studs for sure. Especially Allen.

[garyclark]

I’m glad they both made it. Studs for sure. Especially Allen.

Amen.

Allen has long been one of the most glaring omissions.

[EnochRoot]

Allen belonged in the HOF a long time ago. Glad they’ve finally rectified it.

Parker is another good one for the HOF if only for his late 70s dominance. They were a fun team to watch back then.

[EnochRoot]

I'm sure a lot of sports writers are glad Allen isn't around to celebrate this. Fuck them all, he should have been in long before the veterans committee ever had a say.



(I don't think Parker is a HoFer but he seems super cool and one of my longest wiffle ball HRs ever was pretending to be him so no objections here.)

His black ink 26 (27 is avg HOF), gray ink 144 (145 avg HOF) and hall of fame monitor (ranking him as the 122nd most productive hitter in baseball history) supports the notion he belongs in the Hall.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play ... da01.shtml

[mister d]

Not to ever talk shit on Parker, but those metrics are half self-fulfilling prophicies, right? They factor in MVP votes and stuff and HoF votes are just the same people saying they were right.

[EnochRoot]

Not to ever talk shit on Parker, but those metrics are half self-fulfilling prophicies, right? They factor in MVP votes and stuff and HoF votes are just the same people saying they were right.

The black ink test is simply the # of times you finished at the top of a statistical category, whereas the gray ink test is the # of times you finished top ten. They then relate it to the avg HOF’s scores, and where the player would rank. In both cases, Parker’s a worthy candidate.

The reason IMO he didn’t get much support for his candidacy back in the day was because of his cocaine usage. But yeah, he belongs.

[mister d]

Yeah, you're right. I knew it was more predictive than ... I don't know the right word ... but I thought MVP voting and all that were also factors. The black/gray ink stuff kinda sucks because 11th one year can be better than 5th another year, you know? Not just era adjusting, but hitting 40 HRs in the same YoY environment isn't less impressive just because more guys topped out a certain year.

Either way, the Cobra is cool and I'm not objecting.

[EnochRoot]

Yeah, you're right. I knew it was more predictive than ... I don't know the right word ... but I thought MVP voting and all that were also factors. The black/gray ink stuff kinda sucks because 11th one year can be better than 5th another year, you know? Not just era adjusting, but hitting 40 HRs in the same YoY environment isn't less impressive just because more guys topped out a certain year.

Either way, the Cobra is cool and I'm not objecting.

You’re not wrong, but it’s also not used as an entrance requirement, either. It’s just pointing out where they would rank among existing HOFers. MVP voting and points for this and that are in the HOF monitor and HOF standards tests.

But back to your point about the how the black and gray ink tests can be erratic cuz well, 30 HR one year might be top 3, whereas 30 HR another year might be good enough 20th…Today’s players must chart among the best out of a pool of 30 teams. Parker had to do it early in his career among 24 teams, and then once the Jays & Ms were added, 26 teams. Players from back in the earliest part of the 20th century were in a non-segregated pool of 16 teams. It’s an imperfect system that simply takes a snapshot of how they fared vs their competition however many times over their career and superimposes it on the typical HOF career.

IMO Parker went from first ballot guy to a guy who should eventually get in, and it’s cuz he tailed off in the 80s. But man he was a one-man wrecking crew in the late 70s. The NL was nowhere near adopting the DH, either.

[mister d]

The thing is ... if you look at his numbers, the bulk of his production is in a very small window from 1975-79. Which is fine, being the best of a half-decade is really good, but that standard doesn't get applied to pitchers. Guys like Saberhagen, Johan, I'm sure Felix, probably peaked higher but never even came close.

[A_B]

The thing is ... if you look at his numbers, the bulk of his production is in a very small window from 1975-79. Which is fine, being the best of a half-decade is really good, but that standard doesn't get applied to pitchers. Guys like Saberhagen, Johan, I'm sure Felix, probably peaked higher but never even came close.

Shoulda had better nicknames.

[mister d]

Bret SaberhagWIN! THROWhan Santana! King Felix!

[EnochRoot]

Yeah Johan Santanta’s body just fell apart in his late 20s. Dude was out of the sport before he turned 33.

[mister d]

If you're a fan of WAR, Parker was essentially done being effective at 28 but just kept playing. One season over 1.6 bWAR / 1.2 fWAR from 1980 through 1991.

[A_B]

If you're a fan of WAR, Parker was essentially done being effective at 28 but just kept playing. One season over 1.6 bWAR / 1.2 fWAR from 1980 through 1991.

Went into some stat diving. Parker should have won that MVP over Willie McGee in 85!

[Ryan]

Dwight Gooden was 86th in the NL in WAR that year. Batting WAR.

[mister d]

Scrolling down this 1985 hitters list I look exactly like Clark Griswold watching old family movies in the attic.

[Ryan]

Yep I was thinking of a good way to describe all those names too. It reminds me of this, which was my Christmas white whale one year and I ended up playing it for probably 100 hours on a dock during one summer vacation.

[mister d]

I've never even seen that before. Just reading, I can already tell grade school me would be more-actual-mad-than-acceptable over some decisions on who was in or out of a team's top 20 players.

[Ryan]

It was all worth it to hear a robotic voice pronounce Lavalliere the French way.

[mister d]

Top 1% "player who debuted in my lifetime who would be fun to drop into 2025 MLB".

[A_B]

Brian Fucking McCann?

[mister d]

I know Jaffe is on both McCann and Martin although I think its more "keep them on the ballot and lets look into this" than believing they should be elected now. I haven't read his logic yet but it wouldn't surprise me if this is frontlash to Yadier's inevitable selection ...

Fangraphs post-Jackie WAR (offensive % of WAR):
1. Johnny Bench 74.8 (60.9%)
2. Gary Carter 69.4 (40.5%)
3. Ivan Rodriguez 68.4 (10.6%)
4. Carlton Fisk 68.3 (58.9%)
5. Yogi Berra 63.2 (69.0%)
6. Mike Piazza 62.5 (94.7%)
7. Joe Torre 62.3 (103.6%)
8. Buster Posey 57.9 (43.0%)
9. Yadier Molina 55.6 (-41.6%)
10. Russell Martin 54.5 (3.9%)
11. Ted Simmons 54.2 (85.4%)
12. Joe Mauer 53.5 (84.2%)
13. Brian McCann 52.1 (8.1%)
14. Brian Downing 48.4 (162.8%)
15. Gene Tenace 45 (97.9%)
16. Bill Freehan 44.8 (46.4%)
17. Lance Parrish 43.4 (21.4%)
18. Thurman Munson 40.9 (49.9%)
19. Jorge Posada 40.9 (89.7%)
20. Darrell Porter 40.8 (54.0%)

So if Yadier (1st in defensive fWAR) is getting in on all glove (literally a negative value hitter for his career, the only one on the list above (Jim Sundberg is too and 21st)), then Martin (3rd in defensive fWAR) and McCann (4th), who both have almost 2,000 less PAs than Molina with far better bats, need to be reevaluated. Essentially its the Ron Santo debate but now at catcher; if you're a really good hitter and a really good fielder, why is that worse than being an even better fielder but a far worse hitter. Ozzie and Brooks weren't even debated, they were automatically in which is whatever, but a 10 glove and not even half that bat shouldn't be viewed as inherently better than a 8/9 glove and 7+ bat. So my guess is rather than trying to close the door on Molina, Jaffe is saying keep the door open for contemporaries with similar value accomplished a different way.

Love,
Mister D

[Ryan]

Dev’s Advo…

Does a defensive WAR hold the same value as an offensive one? If so, then why care about how they split out? If not, then why use it?

[mister d]

Hold the same value inherently or "is the most valuable defensive player equal to the most valuable offensive player"? Either way, its no. Defensive metrics are still mid-development stage, publicly, so I don't think anyone would say they're accurate versus directionally right. A guy worth 20 runs is almost assuredly better than a guy worth 5 runs, but I can't imagine anyone would argue he's absolutely better than a guy worth 15 or 17. The bigger issue (to me) is that they likely will have this perfectly refined soon (and probably do internally) but you won't be able to apply it backwards because the video/tracking doesn't exist. No one can ever be better than the older guys because you'll never be able to prove or disprove it with the same data. That's annoying. As far as on field value, the best offensive player contributes atleast 2x up to like 5x more runs than the best defensive player annually. I assume most of that is because you can do something good every time up but you can't make a run saving catch every game so defensive value is inherently capped.

ALSO ... I have very little faith in non-movement tracking defensive metrics. So that would go for most fielders until recently and still for catchers (and probably 1B a bit too). My guess is that any defensive metrics had strong confirmation bias included; if you developed an infield number and you've got Ozzie 3rd behind Trammell and like Greg Gagne over a 5 year period, are you going to release that against all common beliefs or are you going to refine your weighting or whatever to push Ozzie to 1st where "everyone knows he should be"? Not that its definitely wrong, I don't doubt Ozzie was a better fielder than Gagne, but when you go in already knowing your answer it devalues your output.

[L-Jam3]

Ichiro (one vote short of unanimous), CC, and Wags. Beltran at 70.3, Andruw at 66.2. Utley jumps 11% in year 2 to 39.8. King Felix at 20.2.

[brian]

Felix at only 20.2 is almost as ridiculous as whatever attention-seeking asshole who didn’t vote for Ichiro.

[Giff]

So happy for Billy the Kid!!

[mister d]

Andruw's number is promising but he also strikes me as the type that will have more absolute "no" votes than guys like Walker and Edgar.

[mister d]

So happy for Billy the Kid!!

I'll probably never reconcile guys like Felix and Johan having innings pitched and WAR 2x or 3x higher than relievers but not getting in because their peaks or careers were too short.

[Ryan]

Ray Guy had way fewer field goals than Morten Andersen

[EnochRoot]

I'll just leave this here.

[Rex]

Sabathia will be an interesting cap discussion. Wagner will be Philly obviously

[L-Jam3]

Sabathia will be an interesting cap discussion. Wagner will be Philly obviously

I was watching the results on the MLB Network, and he was wearing a Yankees cap during the interview.