Also, I am now an Eagles and Phillies fan I guess.
Re: Presidential Election 2024
Posted: Mon Nov 04, 2024 2:56 pm
by Steve of phpBB
L-Jam3 wrote: Mon Nov 04, 2024 2:22 pm
I'm working on another theory. This one isn't as amusing as the shit-jugglers, but here I go.
2016 was a surprise, as Trump was behind in the polls all the way until it mattered. So I'm thinking if there was a group that was undercounted to an extent that when they came into play it swung the election. Also there's always been an adage that a pissed-off voter was a likely voter. So I thought to myself who could be a group in 2016 that was (a) undercounted, and (b) extremely pissed off? And the group I came up with was racist-ass white people.
Now sure, no one would have answered a poll and said that they're voting for Trump because voting for a Democrat is going to open things up to diversity, and with more blacks/women/POCs in positions of power then they would likely lose power due to the talent pool expanding. Which is one of the central tenets of racism in America: if black people now have opportunities, then they'll be more talented people than me I'll have to compete against, and I'll lose my power/job/seat at the table/political strength/potential dating partner. In 2016, after 8 years of a black man as President, and a candidate who was assuaging their racist fears and hatreds, that's a pissed-off group who would be ready to vote. And while the number might not be particularly large, it would've been enough to swing a few states enough to push them Red.
Let's look in 2024. Is there a group that is both (a) undercounted in terms of voting propensity, and (b) hugely fucking pissed off? I think with the Dobbs decision, that group is women. Who both constitute a larger percentage of the population and vote at a higher rate than men. Practically every election has gone the way of abortion protection since the decision, in Senate races, to barely taking the House during midterms (which almost always becomes a bloodbath to the party in the White House), to state constitutional amendments codifying protections. Women are fucking furious over Dobbs. And they know exactly who is at fault for this.
In reality, white women have a significant effect on every state or larger level election, as they're the largest voting bloc by race/gender than any other. White women helped Trump get elected in 2016. But now Dobbs galvanized white women to punish the one who did this. And that's a group that is being seriously underestimated. That's why I'm thinking this is a washout.
That's my hope as well. Even knowing it's a dangerous thing.
Re: Presidential Election 2024
Posted: Mon Nov 04, 2024 5:15 pm
by Shirley
tennbengal wrote: Mon Nov 04, 2024 2:54 pm
Also, I am now an Eagles and Phillies fan I guess.
Merrick Garland just got the vapors.
Re: Presidential Election 2024
Posted: Mon Nov 04, 2024 8:29 pm
by garyclark
This election cycle has been very tough on my wife and one (of my three) kids.
For the sake of mental health, the wife and I decided to go watch the Pope movie tomorrow at 7 PM (two hour running time). The idea being that watching that while a lot of the real-life drama unfolds, the movie will hopefully take our mind off things a bit and force us to turn off our phones and not scroll as much as if we were at home.
We told the kids, and now they all want to come. Which is great, but shocking, because we have literally NEVER ONCE gone to the movies as a family for anything except for kids movies and superhero-type flicks.
Re: Presidential Election 2024
Posted: Mon Nov 04, 2024 8:43 pm
by HaulCitgo
One of the all time great biz Markie songs but what are the vapors. I'll see myself out
Re: Presidential Election 2024
Posted: Mon Nov 04, 2024 8:50 pm
by TankFarm2023
HaulCitgo wrote: Mon Nov 04, 2024 8:43 pm
One of the all time great biz Markie songs but what are the vapors. I'll see myself out
This was my introduction to the term, and always makes me think of LL:
When we began, her hairstyle was neat
But when I left the next morning it looked like shredded wheat
Talked about marriage, I said "That's risky
Besides, it's such a waste of Rice Crispies"
She had a robe with the velour material
Her pops woke up, I said "Hello Mr. Cereal
I came this morning to deliver the paper."
He said "Stop frontin', I know you caught the vapors
That's my daughter, so save your croonin'
You better find another bowl of cereal to stick your spoon in."
Re: Presidential Election 2024
Posted: Mon Nov 04, 2024 9:10 pm
by Johnnie
Jon Ralston says Kamala wins Nevada by .3%
Re: Presidential Election 2024
Posted: Mon Nov 04, 2024 9:27 pm
by brian
I think Trump actually wins NV by a small amount - maybe 10,000 votes but hopefully it won’t matter. If the election comes down to NV we’re all probably already fucked.
Re: Presidential Election 2024
Posted: Mon Nov 04, 2024 9:51 pm
by govmentchedda
garyclark wrote: Mon Nov 04, 2024 8:29 pm
This election cycle has been very tough on my wife and one (of my three) kids.
For the sake of mental health, the wife and I decided to go watch the Pope movie tomorrow at 7 PM (two hour running time). The idea being that watching that while a lot of the real-life drama unfolds, the movie will hopefully take our mind off things a bit and force us to turn off our phones and not scroll as much as if we were at home.
We told the kids, and now they all want to come. Which is great, but shocking, because we have literally NEVER ONCE gone to the movies as a family for anything except for kids movies and superhero-type flicks.
Conclave is great. Watched it last Friday.
Re: Presidential Election 2024
Posted: Mon Nov 04, 2024 10:04 pm
by HaulCitgo
Do for the family. Enjoy one way or the other. Just one requires dad to join the insurgency. Bwa Kale
Re: Presidential Election 2024
Posted: Mon Nov 04, 2024 10:11 pm
by brian
Joe Rogan endorses Trump which will move the needle zero among his base of incels and wife-beaters.
Re: Presidential Election 2024
Posted: Mon Nov 04, 2024 10:13 pm
by The Sybian
Y’all are a lot more confident than I am. Hope you are right. I feel like Trump may have the sane number of supporters, but they are less excited, so hoping no violence or attempted insurrections. But there are way too many crazies who believe the Dems will destroy America, enslave Whites, persecute Christians, take all the guns, etc… And Trump is a cornered animal if he loses. He is facing too many criminal cases and needs immunity. And he doesn’t give a fuck about anything but himself, so he will torch the country to save his hide.
Re: Presidential Election 2024
Posted: Mon Nov 04, 2024 10:18 pm
by brian
The Sybian wrote: Mon Nov 04, 2024 10:13 pm
Y’all are a lot more confident than I am. Hope you are right. I feel like Trump may have the sane number of supporters, but they are less excited, so hoping no violence or attempted insurrections. But there are way too many crazies who believe the Dems will destroy America, enslave Whites, persecute Christians, take all the guns, etc… And Trump is a cornered animal if he loses. He is facing too many criminal cases and needs immunity. And he doesn’t give a fuck about anything but himself, so he will torch the country to save his hide.
What do you think he can do? Once all the votes are cast he has nothing left to do other than frivolous lawsuits and temper tantrums.
The Sybian wrote: Mon Nov 04, 2024 10:13 pm
Y’all are a lot more confident than I am. Hope you are right. I feel like Trump may have the sane number of supporters, but they are less excited, so hoping no violence or attempted insurrections. But there are way too many crazies who believe the Dems will destroy America, enslave Whites, persecute Christians, take all the guns, etc… And Trump is a cornered animal if he loses. He is facing too many criminal cases and needs immunity. And he doesn’t give a fuck about anything but himself, so he will torch the country to save his hide.
What do you think he can do? Once all the votes are cast he has nothing left to do other than frivolous lawsuits and temper tantrums.
I don’t think he can steal the election, but he can persuade his nutty supporters to get violent. Hell, if he brings a frivolous he’s packed the courts, and I don’t trust the Supreme Court. There’s been a lot of shocking cases that don’t get nearly enough attention. They have proven they gave no respect for precedence and will decide based on politics and not legal consistency.
The Sybian wrote: Mon Nov 04, 2024 10:13 pm
Y’all are a lot more confident than I am. Hope you are right. I feel like Trump may have the sane number of supporters, but they are less excited, so hoping no violence or attempted insurrections. But there are way too many crazies who believe the Dems will destroy America, enslave Whites, persecute Christians, take all the guns, etc… And Trump is a cornered animal if he loses. He is facing too many criminal cases and needs immunity. And he doesn’t give a fuck about anything but himself, so he will torch the country to save his hide.
What do you think he can do? Once all the votes are cast he has nothing left to do other than frivolous lawsuits and temper tantrums.
I don’t think he can steal the election, but he can persuade his nutty supporters to get violent. Hell, if he brings a frivolous he’s packed the courts, and I don’t trust the Supreme Court. There’s been a lot of shocking cases that don’t get nearly enough attention. They have proven they gave no respect for precedence and will decide based on politics and not legal consistency.
The courts were packed the same in 2020 AND he controlled the Judiciary. I get the concern about his nutters - Jan 6 shows that’s legit - but there’s only so much he can do.
The Sybian wrote: Mon Nov 04, 2024 10:13 pm
Y’all are a lot more confident than I am. Hope you are right. I feel like Trump may have the sane number of supporters, but they are less excited, so hoping no violence or attempted insurrections. But there are way too many crazies who believe the Dems will destroy America, enslave Whites, persecute Christians, take all the guns, etc… And Trump is a cornered animal if he loses. He is facing too many criminal cases and needs immunity. And he doesn’t give a fuck about anything but himself, so he will torch the country to save his hide.
What do you think he can do? Once all the votes are cast he has nothing left to do other than frivolous lawsuits and temper tantrums.
I don’t think he can steal the election, but he can persuade his nutty supporters to get violent. Hell, if he brings a frivolous he’s packed the courts, and I don’t trust the Supreme Court. There’s been a lot of shocking cases that don’t get nearly enough attention. They have proven they gave no respect for precedence and will decide based on politics and not legal consistency.
The courts were packed the same in 2020 AND he controlled the Judiciary. I get the concern about his nutters - Jan 6 shows that’s legit - but there’s only so much he can do.
It’s unlikely, but not impossible. Never would have thought a federal judge would do what Aileen Canon has, never would have thought the Loper Bright holding overturning Chevron was possible, but here we are. That case is more damaging than Citizens United. Basically cripples government agencies from enforcing anything at a Judge’s whim.
Re: Presidential Election 2024
Posted: Mon Nov 04, 2024 11:08 pm
by Steve of phpBB
WI, MI, and PA all have Dem governors. If Harris wins those states, there’s not much the Republicans can do.
And if she doesn’t win (at least) those states, it probably doesn’t matter.
Re: Presidential Election 2024
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 7:56 am
by govmentchedda
Blue wave. Weed and abortions for everyone in Florida. I want to go so far as to say Rick Scott loses, despite the vanilla ass campaign the DNC ran for Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
Re: Presidential Election 2024
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 8:14 am
by A_B
govmentchedda wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 7:56 am
Blue wave. Weed and abortions for everyone in Florida. I want to go so far as to say Rick Scott loses, despite the vanilla ass campaign the DNC ran for Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
She and Allred were by far the worst twitter ad offenders for me.
10 minute wait to vote. Nothing difficult. Youngest had a ballot issue but they gave a new one and disposed of the old so the system worked.
Re: Presidential Election 2024
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 8:18 am
by L-Jam3
I voted last week live, but the Mrs. is going this afternoon. I'm going with because I'm totally going to talk shit to MAGA fuckwits. I'm somewhat disappointed that we're not going to know for a couple of days, but maybe the final guillotine blade falls Saturday afternoon like last time when all the Philly mail-ins get tabulated.
Seriously. I can't fucking wait.
Re: Presidential Election 2024
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 8:27 am
by MaxWebster
this is a relatively very-new thing for me, courtesy of my 22yr old, but ... i am fucking terrified - couldn't sleep last night - and will be gummying it up (??) at 6pm tonight. Will top it off with some Bourbon and get absolutely stupid (the gummy effect is really weird - i know so little and have no idea if it's the same for everyone but when it hits i don't "feel" anything but i literally cannot remember what i said 2 sentences prior)...
ramble ramble ... my wife/daughter are excited to watch tv tonight and the very idea makes me gag. i will be in my basement studio playing music loudly and avoiding it all.
DSafetyGuy wrote: Mon Nov 04, 2024 12:12 pm
It's okay to put your phone down and ignore things at some point tomorrow evening. Watch a show on a streaming service, a movie, something else. My wife and I did in four years ago. It can be done.
I'm going to try to do that as well. And turning off the notifications on my phone.
The only way thing that could possibly work for me is driving to somewhere that has no cell service.
Though my son suggested we hit the gummies tomorrow night. That sounds like a great idea - I'd start now but I have to defend depositions tomorrow.
Re: Presidential Election 2024
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 8:30 am
by MaxWebster
side-note: i work in a small section of the federal govt and we've been getting daily emails with the subject: "Managing Stress and Anxiety During Election Season"
even just reading that title each morning is giving me anxiety
anyways - a general shout-out and thank you for this board. every time i shut myself down/off i realize weirdly that just reading you guys makes me feel a little better. ... mostly.
Re: Presidential Election 2024
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 8:52 am
by govmentchedda
MaxWebster wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 8:27 am
this is a relatively very-new thing for me, courtesy of my 22yr old, but ... i am fucking terrified - couldn't sleep last night - and will be gummying it up (??) at 6pm tonight. Will top it off with some Bourbon and get absolutely stupid (the gummy effect is really weird - i know so little and have no idea if it's the same for everyone but when it hits i don't "feel" anything but i literally cannot remember what i said 2 sentences prior)...
ramble ramble ... my wife/daughter are excited to watch tv tonight and the very idea makes me gag. i will be in my basement studio playing music loudly and avoiding it all.
DSafetyGuy wrote: Mon Nov 04, 2024 12:12 pm
It's okay to put your phone down and ignore things at some point tomorrow evening. Watch a show on a streaming service, a movie, something else. My wife and I did in four years ago. It can be done.
I'm going to try to do that as well. And turning off the notifications on my phone.
The only way thing that could possibly work for me is driving to somewhere that has no cell service.
Though my son suggested we hit the gummies tomorrow night. That sounds like a great idea - I'd start now but I have to defend depositions tomorrow.
My wife sent me a meme this morning with the caption "Therapist: what are your plans for election night? Client: " and the video was Elton singing "and I'm gonna be hiiiiiii-iiii-iiiighh as a kite by then"
The Sybian wrote: Mon Nov 04, 2024 10:13 pm
Y’all are a lot more confident than I am. Hope you are right. I feel like Trump may have the sane number of supporters, but they are less excited, so hoping no violence or attempted insurrections. But there are way too many crazies who believe the Dems will destroy America, enslave Whites, persecute Christians, take all the guns, etc… And Trump is a cornered animal if he loses. He is facing too many criminal cases and needs immunity. And he doesn’t give a fuck about anything but himself, so he will torch the country to save his hide.
What do you think he can do? Once all the votes are cast he has nothing left to do other than frivolous lawsuits and temper tantrums.
I think an under-discussed potential issue is it's not clear how many Trump loyalists are in place in election-related positions throughout the country (like the Tina Peters thing here in Colorado). I know he has the Georgia State Election Board and I think a county or two in Michigan but in how many other spots are people in positions to affect how results are managed or challenged.
The Sybian wrote: Mon Nov 04, 2024 10:13 pm
Y’all are a lot more confident than I am. Hope you are right. I feel like Trump may have the sane number of supporters, but they are less excited, so hoping no violence or attempted insurrections. But there are way too many crazies who believe the Dems will destroy America, enslave Whites, persecute Christians, take all the guns, etc… And Trump is a cornered animal if he loses. He is facing too many criminal cases and needs immunity. And he doesn’t give a fuck about anything but himself, so he will torch the country to save his hide.
What do you think he can do? Once all the votes are cast he has nothing left to do other than frivolous lawsuits and temper tantrums.
I think an under-discussed potential issue is it's not clear how many Trump loyalists are in place in election-related positions throughout the country (like the Tina Peters thing here in Colorado). I know he has the Georgia State Election Board and I think a county or two in Michigan but in how many other spots are people in positions to affect how results are managed or challenged.
Yup.. Harris needs to beat not only Trump, and not only the Electoral College, but also the Margin of Fuckery.
Re: Presidential Election 2024
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 9:30 am
by brian
There’s still a level of transparency required in those jobs though. They can’t just dump 40,000 ballots into a landfill.
I’m not saying you’re not right but it would require a string of bad actors from those boards through the court systems for any serious shenanigans.
Re: Presidential Election 2024
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 9:33 am
by duff
And I believe that only a handful of those that talk a good game, would even have the nerve to follow through with it. They are local people. Unless they are currently the most hated individual in the county/region, these people would rather keep the title then risk losing it and all the "perks" that they believe are associated with it.
Re: Presidential Election 2024
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 9:37 am
by Nonlinear FC
And kind of to the point, the woman that GK is referencing in Colorado is sitting in jail right now.
Re: Presidential Election 2024
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 10:03 am
by MaxWebster
nervousLOL
funny that my "supplier" is my college grad who when we moved to Vancouver and smelled pot 23hrs/day was terribly worried at age 12 that we were all going to become addicts
govmentchedda wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 8:52 am
My wife sent me a meme this morning with the caption "Therapist: what are your plans for election night? Client: " and the video was Elton singing "and I'm gonna be hiiiiiii-iiii-iiiighh as a kite by then"
Re: Presidential Election 2024
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 10:04 am
by A_B
MaxWebster wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 10:03 am
nervousLOL
funny that my "supplier" is my college grad who when we moved to Vancouver and smelled pot 23hrs/day was terribly worried at age 12 that we were all going to become addicts
govmentchedda wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 8:52 am
My wife sent me a meme this morning with the caption "Therapist: what are your plans for election night? Client: " and the video was Elton singing "and I'm gonna be hiiiiiii-iiii-iiiighh as a kite by then"
MaxWebster wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 10:03 am
nervousLOL
funny that my "supplier" is my college grad who when we moved to Vancouver and smelled pot 23hrs/day was terribly worried at age 12 that we were all going to become addicts
govmentchedda wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 8:52 am
My wife sent me a meme this morning with the caption "Therapist: what are your plans for election night? Client: " and the video was Elton singing "and I'm gonna be hiiiiiii-iiii-iiiighh as a kite by then"
And apparently they were right.
Re: Presidential Election 2024
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 10:16 am
by Ryan
The insanest of turnout here this morning.
Re: Presidential Election 2024
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 11:11 am
by sancarlos
MaxWebster wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 8:30 am
side-note: i work in a small section of the federal govt and we've been getting daily emails with the subject: "Managing Stress and Anxiety During Election Season"
Yeah, my daughter works for FERC, (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission) in Washington DC, which is one of the agencies Trump is supposedly targeting, so she is also feeling some stress.
Re: Presidential Election 2024
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 11:14 am
by Rush2112
MaxWebster wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 10:03 am
nervousLOL
funny that my "supplier" is my college grad who when we moved to Vancouver and smelled pot 23hrs/day was terribly worried at age 12 that we were all going to become addicts
govmentchedda wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 8:52 am
My wife sent me a meme this morning with the caption "Therapist: what are your plans for election night? Client: " and the video was Elton singing "and I'm gonna be hiiiiiii-iiii-iiiighh as a kite by then"
Ply her with Scotch and she gets you a deal?
(and Rocket Man is a fucking jam.)
Re: Presidential Election 2024
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 11:27 am
by mister d
My youngest a few years back inexplicably thought the song was "Muffin Man".
MaxWebster wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 8:30 am
side-note: i work in a small section of the federal govt and we've been getting daily emails with the subject: "Managing Stress and Anxiety During Election Season"
Yeah, my daughter works for FERC, (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission) in Washington DC, which is one of the agencies Trump is supposedly targeting, so she is also feeling some stress.
My wife works for a consulting company that does a lot of business with the Dept of Ed, so... They will likely be able to pivot, but it's very stressful nonetheless.
Re: Presidential Election 2024
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 11:58 am
by DaveInSeattle
mister d wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 11:27 am
My youngest a few years back inexplicably thought the song was "Muffin Man".
