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2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
Hold on, I'm trying to see if Jack London ever gets this fire built or not.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
Man, this guy really does seem like a tool.
Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
I think it’s more likely to be incompetence than conspiracy for the reasons stated but this debacle definitely hurts whoever did well and helps Biden (assuming that he did in fact finish a distant 4th or 5th). Iowa is a small state that apportions its delegates among multiple candidates so the value of winning there is almost entirely symbolic. If there are delayed or murky results it takes away what would otherwise be a big PR boost. The headline on every paper in America today would’ve been “Sanders/Warren/Pete Wins Iowa.” Instead, I’m seeing on CNN.com: “Iowa meltdown hands opening to Trump.”
Also the level of grift by former Clinton staffers like Robby Mook here is impressive. They used all the Russia fearmongering to not only deflect blame for their own catastrophic mistakes but also to rebrand as “election security experts.” Then used that rebranding to get new contracts that they were apparently woefully unqualified for.
Also the level of grift by former Clinton staffers like Robby Mook here is impressive. They used all the Russia fearmongering to not only deflect blame for their own catastrophic mistakes but also to rebrand as “election security experts.” Then used that rebranding to get new contracts that they were apparently woefully unqualified for.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
They should have hired Brian.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
Yeah, I can assure you it would have gone even worse then.
Though all I'll add is I've lived in a state with a primary and now live in a state with a caucus and caucuses are dumb as shit. Should just mandate every state have a primary.
Though all I'll add is I've lived in a state with a primary and now live in a state with a caucus and caucuses are dumb as shit. Should just mandate every state have a primary.
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- Nonlinear FC
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
It's also interesting to me that the year that I've heard so much more clamoring for Iowa to a) change its format and b) not be first is the same year this colossal fuck up occurs.
Again, not feeding into conspiracy, it's just that I've never heard such a concerted effort before about Iowa.
Now this.
I'm of a mind that you hold a round of Super Tuesday's beginning in February and running through April or May. I understand the fear about "big money" being overweighted in that type of scenario, but c'mon at this point: You need to be able to fundraise on a massive scale to even be in the conversation.
But, surely Iowa and New Hampshire, two of the whitest states in the union, shouldn't be the bellwether states with such undo influence at this point.
C'mon.
Again, not feeding into conspiracy, it's just that I've never heard such a concerted effort before about Iowa.
Now this.
I'm of a mind that you hold a round of Super Tuesday's beginning in February and running through April or May. I understand the fear about "big money" being overweighted in that type of scenario, but c'mon at this point: You need to be able to fundraise on a massive scale to even be in the conversation.
But, surely Iowa and New Hampshire, two of the whitest states in the union, shouldn't be the bellwether states with such undo influence at this point.
C'mon.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
it also took two weeks for Santorum to win in 2012! this is a screwup that's immensely exacerbated by our need for instant results in a 24/7 news cycleNonlinear FC wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2020 9:57 amAlong these lines... There's a paper trail and the caucuses are done out in the open. You can't fake the results because people at any given venue know all too well how things went down.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics ... aper-trail
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
Yup. Sooner or later everyone will find out if their favored candidate earned 14 delegates, or only 11. Out of the 1990 needed for the nomination.
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
yeah but that was because it was close and contested. There were results coming in all night. Wolf got to draw on his board! He was so bored yesterday.Brontoburglar wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:26 amit also took two weeks for Santorum to win in 2012! this is a screwup that's immensely exacerbated by our need for instant results in a 24/7 news cycleNonlinear FC wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2020 9:57 amAlong these lines... There's a paper trail and the caucuses are done out in the open. You can't fake the results because people at any given venue know all too well how things went down.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics ... aper-trail
Last edited by degenerasian on Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
and last night is, by all accounts and projections, going to be close and contested too
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
that may be, but results should be rolling in live.Brontoburglar wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:32 am and last night is, by all accounts and projections, going to be close and contested too
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
Why, when those numbers will most likely be a false narrative. Just wait and get the correct numbers. Why the rush to see incorrect or incomplete data.degenerasian wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:33 amthat may be, but results should be rolling in live.Brontoburglar wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:32 am and last night is, by all accounts and projections, going to be close and contested too
To quote both Bruce Prichard and Tony Schiavone, "Fuck Duff Meltzer."
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
To your point then there should be no election coverage. No numbers, no speeches, no interviews. No results on Nov 3, 2020. Wake up on Nov 4 and get the final results. That's fine by me but that's not how things work.duff wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:35 amWhy, when those numbers will most likely be a false narrative. Just wait and get the correct numbers. Why the rush to see incorrect or incomplete data.degenerasian wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:33 amthat may be, but results should be rolling in live.Brontoburglar wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:32 am and last night is, by all accounts and projections, going to be close and contested too
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
The counter of "people don't need instant information" works if you're setting that expectation months in advance, not the night of.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
Look, I don't think it needs to be as extreme as degen stated... But there's a lot of weight to just waking up the next day and seeing what the numbers show.
I'm never watching election night coverage again, I can tell you that. I watched ZERO coverage last night, just noted there seemed to be some weirdness, kept reading my book and conked out around 11.
I'm in no way excusing this fucking shitshow, and the fact that I'm now reading that they are, as of 1030a CT sending out people to collect paper ballots in person speaks to the fucked up nature of the people in charge... But I'm not gonna waste my blood pressure chits on shit like this on the night of anymore.
I'm never watching election night coverage again, I can tell you that. I watched ZERO coverage last night, just noted there seemed to be some weirdness, kept reading my book and conked out around 11.
I'm in no way excusing this fucking shitshow, and the fact that I'm now reading that they are, as of 1030a CT sending out people to collect paper ballots in person speaks to the fucked up nature of the people in charge... But I'm not gonna waste my blood pressure chits on shit like this on the night of anymore.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
In the UK, they don;t release partial vote tallies. They wait until all the votes are counted in each constituency and then announce the winner in the constituency.
Granted, it's a different system, but it seems to work well.
Granted, it's a different system, but it seems to work well.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
It works well if you want to stay up til 2am.
I worked the last Canadian election. I counted the ballots and was home by 9:30.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
Your country has like 200 people.degenerasian wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2020 12:18 pmIt works well if you want to stay up til 2am.
I worked the last Canadian election. I counted the ballots and was home by 9:30.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
A_B wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2020 12:21 pmYour country has like 200 people.degenerasian wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2020 12:18 pmIt works well if you want to stay up til 2am.
I worked the last Canadian election. I counted the ballots and was home by 9:30.
Iowa has like 200 people.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
Now that's funny!
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
So Pete claims victory after funding the system and Biden threatens to sue to keep result form coming out because they may be bad for him.
Maybe JoeK can lecture again how they aren't closet Republicans.
Maybe JoeK can lecture again how they aren't closet Republicans.
Hold on, I'm trying to see if Jack London ever gets this fire built or not.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
I mean, dirty politics sure isn't confined to one party... that's like... History and shit.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
And, BTW, if you're everyone other than Biden:
"Yes, please, continue to threaten to sue. Thank you very much."
Terrible fucking optics on that, man. Terrible.
"Yes, please, continue to threaten to sue. Thank you very much."
Terrible fucking optics on that, man. Terrible.
You can lead a horse to fish, but you can't fish out a horse.
Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
A friend of mine is a precinct captain. On Saturday he new the app wasn't working.
How long have you been a Black quaterback?
Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
That doesn't sell Coca-Coladegenerasian wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:42 amTo your point then there should be no election coverage. No numbers, no speeches, no interviews. No results on Nov 3, 2020. Wake up on Nov 4 and get the final results. That's fine by me but that's not how things work.duff wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:35 amWhy, when those numbers will most likely be a false narrative. Just wait and get the correct numbers. Why the rush to see incorrect or incomplete data.degenerasian wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:33 amthat may be, but results should be rolling in live.Brontoburglar wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:32 am and last night is, by all accounts and projections, going to be close and contested too
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
If you're on the "Bernie or Warren vs. no one else please" train like most of us, this Iowa fuckup could actually be really good news. Regardless of whom wins Iowa, it's not going to be as important as if the results had been announced last night, upping the importance of NH where presumably Warren and Sanders could/should be stronger than Iowa.
Assuming you believe in things like momentum and whatnot, a strong 1-2 finish for Bernie and Warren in either order could really reset things towards ensuring one of those two is the nominee.
Assuming you believe in things like momentum and whatnot, a strong 1-2 finish for Bernie and Warren in either order could really reset things towards ensuring one of those two is the nominee.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
(Bernie might well have won Iowa anyway, who the hell knows, but the point is that whomever won isn't going to get the fundraising and media bump that they would have otherwise.)
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
I'll tell you this, from the Pod Save guys and other reporting for months in Iowa...
Biden had extremely tepid support. He has the big name endorsements, but his ground game was absolutely shitty. Low attendance at a lot of rallies, not nearly as many operational workers.
Folks with extremely strong ground games: Bernie, Pete, Warren and Klobuchar. And as I mentioned back in the day, Cory Booker.
I said on Monday I wouldn't be surprised by Warren coming in third. I thought Biden's name would put him second and Bernie 1st.
As I said earlier today, I'm happy to be wrong and swap Pete for Biden in the second slot. Hell, bump Biden down to 5th with Klobuchar in the 4 spot.
-u0-u-u-u
Klobuchar, IMO, is the one that this lag is hurting most. She put almost all of her eggs in the Iowa basket, hoping for this bump.
Biden had extremely tepid support. He has the big name endorsements, but his ground game was absolutely shitty. Low attendance at a lot of rallies, not nearly as many operational workers.
Folks with extremely strong ground games: Bernie, Pete, Warren and Klobuchar. And as I mentioned back in the day, Cory Booker.
I said on Monday I wouldn't be surprised by Warren coming in third. I thought Biden's name would put him second and Bernie 1st.
As I said earlier today, I'm happy to be wrong and swap Pete for Biden in the second slot. Hell, bump Biden down to 5th with Klobuchar in the 4 spot.
-u0-u-u-u
Klobuchar, IMO, is the one that this lag is hurting most. She put almost all of her eggs in the Iowa basket, hoping for this bump.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
My mom and middle son have been in Iowa for two weeks and whatever Klobuchar was doing worked on her. Hoping she's (Klobuchar) way out of it before we vote here in Florida.Nonlinear FC wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2020 4:24 pm I'll tell you this, from the Pod Save guys and other reporting for months in Iowa...
Biden had extremely tepid support. He has the big name endorsements, but his ground game was absolutely shitty. Low attendance at a lot of rallies, not nearly as many operational workers.
Folks with extremely strong ground games: Bernie, Pete, Warren and Klobuchar. And as I mentioned back in the day, Cory Booker.
I said on Monday I wouldn't be surprised by Warren coming in third. I thought Biden's name would put him second and Bernie 1st.
As I said earlier today, I'm happy to be wrong and swap Pete for Biden in the second slot. Hell, bump Biden down to 5th with Klobuchar in the 4 spot.
-u0-u-u-u
Klobuchar, IMO, is the one that this lag is hurting most. She put almost all of her eggs in the Iowa basket, hoping for this bump.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
I just don't think finishing 4th in a state which she neighbors after spending almost all of her time/resources is going to be enough momentum. Regardless of this SNAFU, I don't think she has legs past this first two primaries.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
First results (about 2/3rds of final precincts supposedly) drop:
Mayor Pete 27-ish
Bernie 26-ish
Warren 18-ish
Biden 15-ish
Klobuchar 12-ish
No one else even close enough to those five to matter. Gotta think if Biden falters in NH (which seems likely at this point), that's going to reset a lot of things heading into states like SC and NV with more diverse electorates. I think Bernie's gonna win NV. Biden might need to win SC to even remain viable which is pretty amazing.
Mayor Pete 27-ish
Bernie 26-ish
Warren 18-ish
Biden 15-ish
Klobuchar 12-ish
No one else even close enough to those five to matter. Gotta think if Biden falters in NH (which seems likely at this point), that's going to reset a lot of things heading into states like SC and NV with more diverse electorates. I think Bernie's gonna win NV. Biden might need to win SC to even remain viable which is pretty amazing.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
Biden might not even beat Steyer in SC, who is really charging.brian wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:09 pm First results (about 2/3rds of final precincts supposedly) drop:
Mayor Pete 27-ish
Bernie 26-ish
Warren 18-ish
Biden 15-ish
Klobuchar 12-ish
No one else even close enough to those five to matter. Gotta think if Biden falters in NH (which seems likely at this point), that's going to reset a lot of things heading into states like SC and NV with more diverse electorates. I think Bernie's gonna win NV. Biden might need to win SC to even remain viable which is pretty amazing.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
(As for Biden, I think Trump's months-long attacks including the shizz that got him impeached worked, especially after 2016. I don't think Democrats are interested in repeating the "but her emails" nonsense again with the "but Hunter Biden" shit, as ridiculous as it was four years ago and still is today.
That also said, Trump could well be doing the Democrats a favor by ensuring Biden isn't the nominee. I'm not gonna cry any crocodile tears over it.)
That also said, Trump could well be doing the Democrats a favor by ensuring Biden isn't the nominee. I'm not gonna cry any crocodile tears over it.)
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
Not sure why we're in parens mode. Trump has been going after Biden from Day 1 because of the Obama connection and his perception that he was always going to be the most formidable opponent.
I also think that he and his camp think that Bernie would do the most to split the Dem Party. He saw that play out in his favor in 2016 and is rather densely (and predictably) just hoping it happens again.
The massive problem with that calculation is twofold: The Dem party is shifting/has already shifted to where Bernie is already. Secondly, and I've talked about this here a lot: There is a Venn Diagram that has a ton of carry-over between white, rural disaffected voters that went Obama-->Trump and potential (or existing) Bernie voters.
To me, that's a huge problem for Trump. If Bernie can win over the suburban white vote, this shit is over.
I also think that he and his camp think that Bernie would do the most to split the Dem Party. He saw that play out in his favor in 2016 and is rather densely (and predictably) just hoping it happens again.
The massive problem with that calculation is twofold: The Dem party is shifting/has already shifted to where Bernie is already. Secondly, and I've talked about this here a lot: There is a Venn Diagram that has a ton of carry-over between white, rural disaffected voters that went Obama-->Trump and potential (or existing) Bernie voters.
To me, that's a huge problem for Trump. If Bernie can win over the suburban white vote, this shit is over.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
Well, Biden was polling well in Iowa and nationally as recently as a couple of weeks ago. Falling to what looks like a fourth-place finish is going to kneecap him and is a stunning fall (with the caveat that the delay in results numbs the sting a little). If Biden doesn't win SC or NV he's probably done, which is even more amazing considering in national polling he had a double digit lead earlier this year.Nonlinear FC wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:25 pm Not sure why we're in parens mode. Trump has been going after Biden from Day 1 because of the Obama connection and his perception that he was always going to be the most formidable opponent.
I also think that he and his camp think that Bernie would do the most to split the Dem Party. He saw that play out in his favor in 2016 and is rather densely (and predictably) just hoping it happens again.
The massive problem with that calculation is twofold: The Dem party is shifting/has already shifted to where Bernie is already. Secondly, and I've talked about this here a lot: There is a Venn Diagram that has a ton of carry-over between white, rural disaffected voters that went Obama-->Trump and potential (or existing) Bernie voters.
To me, that's a huge problem for Trump. If Bernie can win over the suburban white vote, this shit is over.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
brian wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:29 pmWell, Biden was polling well in Iowa and nationally as recently as a couple of weeks ago. Falling to what looks like a fourth-place finish is going to kneecap him and is a stunning fall (with the caveat that the delay in results numbs the sting a little). If Biden doesn't win SC or NV he's probably done, which is even more amazing considering in national polling he had a double digit lead earlier this year.Nonlinear FC wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:25 pm Not sure why we're in parens mode. Trump has been going after Biden from Day 1 because of the Obama connection and his perception that he was always going to be the most formidable opponent.
I also think that he and his camp think that Bernie would do the most to split the Dem Party. He saw that play out in his favor in 2016 and is rather densely (and predictably) just hoping it happens again.
The massive problem with that calculation is twofold: The Dem party is shifting/has already shifted to where Bernie is already. Secondly, and I've talked about this here a lot: There is a Venn Diagram that has a ton of carry-over between white, rural disaffected voters that went Obama-->Trump and potential (or existing) Bernie voters.
To me, that's a huge problem for Trump. If Bernie can win over the suburban white vote, this shit is over.
Just going to point out that polling in Iowa, in particular, doesn't take into account the ground game necessary to do well in that state's caucus. He'd probably STILL do well in a general poll there, it doesn't account for the actual effort and more importantly real commitment from caucusers it takes to do well there.
Some years, it's not as big a deal. But with a field this crowded and competitive, if you don't have an army of die hards, you are going to falter. People really love Bernie, Pete and Elizabeth. There's not that fire for Biden.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
Or put another way:brian wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:09 pm First results (about 2/3rds of final precincts supposedly) drop:
Mayor Pete 27-ish
Bernie 26-ish
Warren 18-ish
Biden 15-ish
Klobuchar 12-ish
No one else even close enough to those five to matter. Gotta think if Biden falters in NH (which seems likely at this point), that's going to reset a lot of things heading into states like SC and NV with more diverse electorates. I think Bernie's gonna win NV. Biden might need to win SC to even remain viable which is pretty amazing.
Pete 11
Bernie 11
Warren 7
Biden 6
Klobuchar 5
The gap among the Top 4 is 5 - with only 3,938 delegates left.
And his one problem is he didn’t go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and they froze to death.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
Yeah Iowa is about optics, not delegates.
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Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
As #IowaCaucas holds as the #1 trend on U.S. Twitter, users highlight the misspelling of "caucus" as it goes viral.
Now the DNC is getting torched for releasing just enough of the poll (62%) to make it look like mayor Pete won.
Can't win.
Now the DNC is getting torched for releasing just enough of the poll (62%) to make it look like mayor Pete won.
Can't win.
Kung Fu movies are like porn. There's 1 on 1, then 2 on 1, then a group scene..
Re: 2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread
I've never understood how Biden was winning polls for so long. I never come across anyone - in real life or online - who is pulling for Biden. I get that the DNC wants him and the big donors want him, but do any actual voters?
Totally Kafkaesque