Ukraine

[EnochRoot]

By the clock, I just showed more urgency scheduling a meeting than this.

LOL probably has something to do with all the active flags on certain senators' security clearances.

[sancarlos]

[tennbengal]

[DaveInSeattle]

Interesting thread...

[EnochRoot]

Interesting thread...

thread

I think there is something very interesting happening.

There seem to be quite a lot of reports that Russia is not getting as far ahead as it would have hoped in its invasion.

If you look at the soviet deep strike doctrine, this this attack appears to be based on, it is about fast moving columns advancing on different axes in order to QUICKLY encircle enemy forces. It’s about deep fires, and about having multiple echelons of troops

… so that successive waves can move forward and exploit any axes of advance that look promising.

The key to this is moving fast. And keeping your logistics protected - your armour is going to be out on a limb.
But it seems that the Russians are a bit surprised that the Ukrainians have fought back. And fought back well.

The Russians are taking casualties, which it seems they weren’t expecting.

The Russian ministry of health had just effectively mobilised civilian doctors in Russia. One assumes to deal with the level of casualties being sustained.
This makes sense in the following way.

Putin basically assumed that the Ukrainians would collapse so all they would have to do is a thunder run to Kyiv. Don’t worry about the logistics - we’ll sort that out once we’ve toppled their government.

But if you’re the Ukrainians and you know that the Russians are gonna use some variant of deep strike doctrine what do you do?
You let the armoured columns pass and then destroy the log tail using stay behind parties armed with anti tank weapons, or using helicopters, whilst keeping them out of the cities (Incredibly stupid by the way that the Russians didn’t wipe out the Ukrainian Air Force before they started - a real sign of their hubris).

So I would guess that a lot of the Russian casualties are the logistic elements that are following up.

So far the Russians seem to have committed about 50k forces or a third of what they have. So maybe there are more echelons coming, and maybe the Russians will still overwhelm Kyiv. Or maybe they won’t. It seems in the balance.

And the longer the Ukrainians can hold on, the less the Russians will be able to continue.

Amateurs talk tactics and professionals talk logistics.
It’s also really unclear what putin’s political objectives are for this war. And as the west learnt over the last two decades, deploying military force without clearly understanding the political aims is stupid and leads to failure.

[Johnnie]

Professionals talk logistics. Heh. Damn right.

And then you get scenes like this and you're like, "Oh shit. Ukrainians are fucking awesome."

[Johnnie]

Bruh. That quote.

[HaulCitgo]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles ... ussia-wins

Pretty interesting.

IMPERILING EUROPE'S EAST
In the event of a Russian victory in Ukraine, Germany‘s position in Europe will be severely challenged. Germany is a marginal military power that has based its postwar political identity on the rejection of war. The ring of friends it has surrounded itself with, especially in the east with Poland and the Baltic states, risks being destabilized by Russia. France and the United Kingdom will assume leading roles in European affairs by virtue of their comparatively strong militaries and long tradition of military interventions. The key factor in Europe, however, will remain the United States. NATO will depend on U.S. support as will the anxious and imperiled countries of Europe’s east, the frontline nations arrayed along a now very large, expanded, and uncertain line of contact with Russia, including Belarus and the Russian-controlled parts of Ukraine.

Eastern member states, including Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Romania, will likely have substantial numbers of NATO troops permanently stationed on their soil. A request from Finland and Sweden to gain an Article 5 commitment and to join NATO would be impossible to reject. In Ukraine, EU and NATO countries will never recognize a new Russian-backed regime created by Moscow. But they will face the same challenge they do with Belarus: wielding sanctions without punishing the population and supporting those in need without having access to them. Some NATO members will bolster a Ukrainian insurgency, to which Russia will respond by threatening NATO members.

[HaulCitgo]

Bruh. That quote.

Listening to NPR. The guy taped a video outside in kyiv and basically called everyone to arms to defend. Apparently to counter propoganda that they were surrendering. It was inspiring over the radio in a language I couldn't understand. The world needs to support those people with every auxiliary and monetary way available.

[DaveInSeattle]

Professionals talk logistics. Heh. Damn right.

I knew you would like that quote!

[tennbengal]

[tennbengal]

[sancarlos]

Professionals talk logistics. Heh. Damn right.

And then you get scenes like this and you're like, "Oh shit. Ukrainians are fucking awesome."

While I read that thread about military logistics, I wondered “What does Johnnie think about this?” !

[Johnnie]

Now if only my career field was actually looked at with any reverence by the higher ranks at base level, we'd get somewhere.

The Air Force as a professional fighting Force gets it, but so many at tactical levels take it for granted.

I always found it great that people in my chain of command will share famous logistics related quotes (like from Sun Tzu or something) but have no concept of what they mean. Makes me chuckle.

[pruitt2]

This absolutely enrages me. These poor people.

[tennbengal]

[Steve of phpBB]

[Johnnie]

[Johnnie]

My buddy noted these when he and I were chatting. Apparently there is open source news that alludes to these:

1. Russia has used its oldest vehicles and weapons so far
2. Russia has sent in their youngest and most inexperienced so far
3. Russia has not shown their hand and is saving their true capabilities f/ a potential war with NATO

Not sure how true it is, but it seems likely.

[degenerasian]

My buddy noted these when he and I were chatting. Apparently there is open source news that alludes to these:

1. Russia has used its oldest vehicles and weapons so far
2. Russia has sent in their youngest and most inexperienced so far
3. Russia has not shown their hand and is saving their true capabilities f/ a potential war with NATO

Not sure how true it is, but it seems likely.

I don't think that's very smart. Wouldn't you want to use your best to knock Ukraine out quickly? Now the Ukrainians are galvanized and NATO has troops very close by, what if they change their mind?

Russians would get destroyed by NATO.

[Steve of phpBB]

My buddy noted these when he and I were chatting. Apparently there is open source news that alludes to these:

1. Russia has used its oldest vehicles and weapons so far
2. Russia has sent in their youngest and most inexperienced so far
3. Russia has not shown their hand and is saving their true capabilities f/ a potential war with NATO

Not sure how true it is, but it seems likely.

I don't think that's very smart. Wouldn't you want to use your best to knock Ukraine out quickly? Now the Ukrainians are galvanized and NATO has troops very close by, what if they change their mind?

Russians would get destroyed by NATO.

We should take Kaliningrad and hold it hostage until Russia withdraws from Ukraine.

[EnochRoot]

My buddy noted these when he and I were chatting. Apparently there is open source news that alludes to these:

1. Russia has used its oldest vehicles and weapons so far
2. Russia has sent in their youngest and most inexperienced so far
3. Russia has not shown their hand and is saving their true capabilities f/ a potential war with NATO

Not sure how true it is, but it seems likely.

Truthful or not, it sounds like something Russia would purposely leak to demoralize the enemy. My guess is the US is helping Ukraine with their SIGINT.

[Johnnie]

Yea, I've got nothing in terms of inside info, but everything seems plausible at this point.

[Steve of phpBB]

Yea, I've got nothing in terms of inside info, but everything seems plausible at this point.

Arent we also mostly getting our info from the Ukrainian side? Filtered through a lot of pro-Ukrainian Twitter feeds etc?

Between that and the fact that the war is only three days old, I don’t think we really know anything.

Does anyone else remember, didn’t it seem like the US was making slower than expected progress the first few days after we invaded Iraq?

[degenerasian]

My buddy noted these when he and I were chatting. Apparently there is open source news that alludes to these:

1. Russia has used its oldest vehicles and weapons so far
2. Russia has sent in their youngest and most inexperienced so far
3. Russia has not shown their hand and is saving their true capabilities f/ a potential war with NATO

Not sure how true it is, but it seems likely.

I don't think that's very smart. Wouldn't you want to use your best to knock Ukraine out quickly? Now the Ukrainians are galvanized and NATO has troops very close by, what if they change their mind?

Russians would get destroyed by NATO.

We should take Kaliningrad and hold it hostage until Russia withdraws from Ukraine.

Well. the airspace is closed. There are no direct flights from Russia to Kaliningrad

[Johnnie]

Does anyone else remember, didn’t it seem like the US was making slower than expected progress the first few days after we invaded Iraq?

I remember. But I feel like it was said and done with within a week. And I don't think the news coming out of there was that rapid, hence the feeling it was going slow.

[EnochRoot]

[DaveInSeattle]

Another interesting thread...

[degenerasian]

[EnochRoot]

[pruitt2]

Constantly updated...

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent

[Johnnie]

[tennbengal]

This feels right

[tennbengal]

[tennbengal]

[Johnnie]

Let's hope their nuclear shit is hackable too.



It's why we still launch nukes via old school floppy disks. Unhackable.

[Johnnie]

RG3 with a "Where is Ja? moment for the ages.

[Steve of phpBB]

[Johnnie]

That literally popped up in the YouTube algorithm for me the other day. Free with ads!

[Johnnie]

Sooooo, Trump.

Self awareness is not a Republican's strong suit.